THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After lack of specific warning about the devastating Wayanad landslides became a topic of wide-spread discussion, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has started handing over detailed impact forecast, along with its routine weather alerts, to the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA).
However, the detailed warnings on calamities, including landslides, have put the disaster management agency in an unenviable position, particularly when it comes to evacuating people from high-risk areas.
The IMD started issuing the warnings from July 30, detailing the potential impacts from heavy to very heavy rainfall, including risks of landslides, flash floods and general flooding, necessitating the evacuation of residents from vulnerable to safer locations. Earlier, the IMD used to issue only the table listing the weather alerts — categorised as green, yellow, orange, and red — for five days. As per the new approach, an ‘orange alert’ calls for preparations just like in the case of ‘red alert’. Despite concerns about IMD’s “cautious” approach, the Met department defends its methods.
“We began impact-based forecasting two years ago. Even with the best forecasts, accuracy is only about 70%. We strive for improvement, but over-forecasting can happen. We cannot take a risk. It is up to local authorities to act based on local conditions and infrastructure once a heavy rainfall forecast is issued,” said D Sivananda Pai, senior scientist and ADGM of IMD.
Evacuations carried out selectively: Min
The KSDMA, which is tasked with disaster preparedness and mitigation, bases its actions on IMD’s daily weather alerts issued at 1pm. The district collectors rely on these alerts to decide on the closure os schools and other educational institutions the following day. Over the past week, at least one or two districts in the state were placed under ‘orange alert’, triggering uncertainty among revenue authorities on whether to proceed with evacuations.
“An orange alert in Idukki means thousands of people must be evacuated by night from the areas marked as vulnerable locations. At present, people are likely to heed warnings in view of the Wayanad landslides. But they may start blaming us if we continue to issue warnings that turn out to be unnecessary,” said an officer with the revenue department. According to ISRO’s Landslide Atlas of India-2023, all districts except Alappuzha are among the top 50 places most vulnerable to landslides in India.
Revenue Minister K Rajan explained that evacuations based on weather warning are carried out selectively. “Places under orange alert require mitigation measures, including evacuation. We only evacuate areas that are highly vulnerable, depending on the situation and conditions,” he said.
The challenge of acting on the ground in the absence of a specific warning was evident in the recent landslides. The evacuations in Choorlmala and Mundakkai were sporadic ahead of the July 30 landslides in Wayanad. This led to a political controversy, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah accusing Kerala of not acting on warnings from central agencies like IMD and the Geological Survey of India. In response, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan presented documents indicating the absence of specific warnings. The IMD’s updated approach, which includes detailed impact forecast, could affect the state’s position in future disputes.
In the wake of the new practice, the KSDMA cannot easily shirk its responsibilities and avoid the ensuing blame game in the event of a disaster. The nodal agency is also under scrutiny for allegedly prioritising disaster response over disaster preparedness. Shekhar Kuriakose, the long-time member secretary of KSDMA, was unavailable for comment.
D Sivananda Pai said efforts shall be made to improve observation and modelling even if the best case is only 70% accuracy. “Kerala’s population density is almost double the national average. We need to be prepared for disaster mitigation. Prediction has got some utility in taking precaution,” he said.
IMD had faced criticism for not issuing a red alert, indicating a severe risk to life from extreme weather conditions, for Wayanad on July 29. The landslide occurred early on July 30, but IMD only upgraded their orange alert to red, hours later. Later in a press briefing, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, explained that even an orange alert shall serve as a warning for evacuation.
IMD ALERTS
White: No Rain .Green: No warning (No action) .Yellow: Watch heavy rainfall
Orange: Alert (Be prepared) Heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall .Red: Warning (Take action) heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy rainfall
IMPACT FORECAST
Probable impacts due to the heavy to very heavy/ extremely heavy rainfall detail possibilities of poor visibility, uprooting of trees, damage to structures, flash floods, water logging/flooding, landslides, lightning etc