THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Everything, barring Congress candidate Rahul Mamkootathil’s thumping margin in Palakkad, was on expected lines in by-elections in Kerala. The state maintained its electoral status quo.
However, there were enough pointers to the direction political Kerala is taking, leaving ample scope for predictions. With hardly a year remaining for local-body polls, it’s a much needed bitter pill for the ruling LDF, morale booster for opposition UDF and a wake-up call for an electorally emerging BJP.
In two closely fought assembly by-elections that witnessed triangular contests and last-minute migrations, the UDF and the LDF retained respective seats, while in Wayanad LS seat, Gandhi scion Priyanka Gandhi Vadra recorded a predictably massive victory of over 4 lakh votes.
In Palakkad, state Youth Congress chief Rahul Mamkootathil won with a massive majority of 18,840 votes. U R Pradeep retained Chelakkara for the CPM with a decent margin of 12,201 votes. The BJP drew a blank.
While the authentic victories have come as a confidence booster for UDF, the LDF can counter charges of anti-incumbency with its Chelakkara win and improved performance in Palakkad. The BJP with a substantial dip in vote share in its strongholds has ended up the loser.
The bypolls could well be a pointer to the political transformation that the state has been going through. Palakkad, which has been the centre of attention, witnessed the emergence of two prominent turncoats, in addition to a slew of twists and turns, right from candidate selection to political strategy.
While the Left strategy of fielding former Congressman P Sarin seemed to have a minor positive impact, with the LDF improving its vote share from 25.64% to 27%, the cash-for-vote scam, handling of the Sandeep Varier episode and newspaper advertisement on the eve of polls, seemed to have backfired on the ruling front.
Chelakkara win a relief for CPM; BJP loses its traditional vote base
In a shift from the past, it was CPM secretary M V Govindan who led from the front, in place of CM Pinarayi Vijayan.
On the other hand, following the Congress’ impressive showings with such authentic victories, Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan has asserted his leadership in the party for the time being, as he single-handedly led the UDF show, right from candidate selection to poll campaigning to inducting Sandeep Varier, allegedly keeping other senior leaders at bay.
Satheesan, who has set his eyes on CMship, seems to have scored enough brownie points over other contenders in this round.
Shafi Parambil who batted for Rahul, too cemented his position, espcially with the UDF’s successful harvest of both the Muslim minority and Hindu majority votes.
That the BJP lost its traditional vote base, in a bypoll held soon after it won an LS seat from Kerala, points to poor strategies, internal tussles and leadership issues.
The saffron party will have to mend its ways and adress in-fighting on a warfooting, if it hopes to be part of the picture in the next assembly polls.
The Chelakkara win has come as a relief for the CPM, as it now gives the Left a foothold to counter charges of anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi government. Having said that, it’s imperative to note that the CPM vote share has come down from 54.41% in 2021 to 41.44%. On the other hand, it turned out to be a poor show for Congress here, as at no point could Ramya Haridas pose a decent challenge to the CPM. The Congress will have to go in for a detailed analysis into what went wrong - right from its candidate selection to internal tussles.
The fact that the BJP considerably increased its vote share here from 15.68% in 2021 to 21.49% in 2024- at the cost of both the LDF and the UDF - serves as a pointer to its growth even in Left strongholds.
In Wayanad, despite a substantial drop in polling percentage, Priyanka won with a victory margin of 4,10,931 votes in her maiden electoral outing.
Much to the relief of the state Congress leadership, Priyanka was able to garner 5% more votes than her brother Rahul Gandhi, going past his victory margin of 3.58 lakh in 2024.
The substantial dip in LDF vote share - from 2.83 lakh polled by Annie Raja in 2024 to 2.11 lakh polled by Sathyan Mokeri - has raised questions about the credibility of the Left campaign. The CPI has already expressed concerns over CPM’s soft-pedalling in Wayanad. BJP’s Navya Haridas, who garnered 1.09 lakh votes, could hardly make much of an impact.
