Dr Muralee Thummarukudy, director of the Bonn-headquartered G20 Global Initiative Coordination Office, UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), is advising the state government on steps needed against climate change and natural disasters.
He has worked as the chief of disaster management at the UN for 25 years, and his warnings on Kerala’s preparedness against disasters earned him the nickname ‘duranthettan’ (disaster man). Edited excerpts of his interaction with TNIE.
Kerala has encountered several natural disasters, especially floods and landslides, in recent years. How precarious is the situation?
Kerala is an interesting study. The whole of Kerala is a thin strip of land, stacked between the sea and the mountains. The maximum width of Kerala is about 128km while the narrowest width is as small as 5-10km. And from the other side, the land is very different, both geographically and ecologically.
You have a vulnerable strip of land which, if you don’t manage well, could degrade so fast and in one generation will vanish completely. This has happened in other places. It’s very important that we manage the whole of Kerala, not just the Western Ghats, not just the paddy and the wetlands, and not just the coastline. The whole of Kerala has to be treated as one single vulnerable unit. Similarly, the changing climate is affecting it across the board. So, how we are going to manage the situation is a big challenge.
What are the other peculiarities of Kerala?
Firstly, the population pressure is starting to come down. The Kerala population has stabilised, and it will start to come down in another 10 years in terms of sheer numbers. In terms of actual pressure on land, it has already come down. And if you go into high ranges too, the whole plantation industry is not particularly healthy. So, the actual pressure on land due to human inhabitation has decreased. We can actually see the consequences of that.
We can see a lot more animals but the unfortunate part of this is we are seeing a lot of human-animal conflicts coming in. Purely from an ecological point of view, what we are seeing is a return of the ecology. It has to be drilled into people’s minds that God is not creating anymore land and that the real estate prices will keep going up.
How do you see things panning out going forward?
There are three vulnerable areas in Kerala — high ranges, coastal areas, and Kuttanad. The people residing in these areas are slowly moving out even when there is no disaster. None of the new generation aspires to continue the livelihood of their parents.
There are many reasons, including social and economic factors. Recently, when I was interacting with the fishermen of Mararikulam, they said though the youngsters earn a good income they are not getting good marital relations. Farmers in high ranges make the same complaint. The population pressure in these areas will disappear in the next 20 years.
Kerala has been witnessing landslides every year since 2018 but we haven’t been able to reduce human casualties. There is criticism that the Disaster Management Authority acts only after a disaster happens...
Unlike floods, landslides are not easily predictable. Landslides, debris flow, and mudflow are not predictable. The preventive measures are not simple as they can cause difficulty for residents.
Do you support the development of a township in Wayanad for the rehabilitation of landslide victims? How can the livelihood issue be addressed?
We are not considering an ideal situation. It is the best of the possible options. The ideal option would be providing rehabilitation without disaster risk and circumstances to continue their livelihood. But such a location is not available. The second option is providing a location without disaster risk and ensuring a new livelihood. The government is exploring this option. I think this is the best option as the first option is not available.
You had supported Kerala government’s SilverLine rail project. Now, the state government is going ahead with the tunnel project in Wayanad. What’s your opinion about maintaining a balance between development and environment?
Whether it is SilverLine or a tunnel project, it will have an environmental footprint. The question to be asked is whether we can implement a project with minimal environmental damage. I sincerely believe the SilverLine rail project must be implemented in Kerala, with minimal environmental damage, as the benefits far outweigh the costs. It is the responsibility of society to compensate the affected people.
Those forced to vacate would lose their social network. It is a social process. It happened during the construction of the Nedumbassery airport. I believe Kerala will have a high-speed rail project with minimal environmental impact. High-speed connectivity will happen in Kerala for sure. It may happen in 2030, 2040, or 2050. But it will happen.
There is a perception most of the national disasters are man-made. How do you explain this?
According to the UN’s hypothesis, there are no natural disasters; instead, there are natural hazards. Rain is a natural hazard, but it turns into a disaster due to several factors. In Kerala’s case, the disaster occurred due to a combination of human-made vulnerabilities. We cannot prevent the heavy intensity rainfall, but we can decide where to construct buildings in Ernakulam city and determine which existing structures need to be replaced. We possess the scientific knowledge to make these decisions, but we lack the social framework to implement them effectively.
By 2040, five percent of Kochi is predicted to be submerged, and by 2100, the city could be completely under water. Is it impossible to prevent this?
Studies have been conducted to analyse what might happen to Kochi by 2100, with detailed maps indicating which areas and houses will be submerged. While some parts will be affected, how we manage this situation is crucial. Solutions such as installing high-capacity pumps and creating large reservoirs in Kochi are feasible from an engineering perspective. In Venice, for example, a seawall has been built that automatically adapts to rising water levels.
Although we cannot win the battle against nature, creating space for water is possible. We must recognise the need to allocate space for water to expand. Portions of the city may need to be converted into buffer zones to accommodate rising water. In Ernakulam, identifying natural water flow paths is difficult. However, like in China, designated areas could be developed to absorb excess water. The concept of a ‘sponge city’, introduced in China in 2014, involves using natural features to absorb and slowly release rainwater, preventing flooding.
The state government has been promoting the use of inland waterways to increase connectivity. However, silt deposition has rendered lakes and canals unnavigable. Do you think the use of inland waterways is a good idea?
I don’t see Kerala’s inland waterways as an economically viable lifeline. However, this network of lakes, rivers, and canals can be put to use in promoting tourism. There is a huge possibility in this direction. It may not be viable to operate huge merchant ships.
But I think that we will be able to operate small cruise ships down these rivers, lakes and canals. There is a lot of potential for the development of tourism in Kerala. It can be said that the potential is 20 times greater today than before. There are 34 million people in Kerala. The number of foreign tourists is around 1.5 to 2 million. So, our tourists versus residents ratio stands at 1:50. But in the case of many countries where tourism is happening in a big way, the ratio comes to 1:1.
Don’t you think that such measures will lead to overtourism? And to unregulated construction activities to milk the boom?
These are two separate issues. The first one is overtourism. In Kerala, tourism has been confined to a few spots, maybe around 10. For example, take Bekal Fort and Munnar. In the case of Munnar, reaching the place has become a herculean task. The reason is the traffic bottleneck. This reason in itself will act as a deterrent. It should also be noted that when Kerala was named one of the 50 best places to visit by National Geographic, the state got into the list not because of the natural beauty it has been blessed with. It was because of the state’s social development.
The magazine had called the state the Mount Everest of Social Development. This development happened in the 1,000 villages in the state. So, what is needed is a thought process to develop these 1,000 villages as tourist destinations. But that is not happening. Instead, we are concentrating on developing places with scenic beauty and this in turn results in overtourism.
What’s your suggestion?
Instead of creating new resorts, we can convert the empty houses, which are in large numbers in the state, into homestays. However, for this to happen, we will have to rework the rules and guidelines governing the categorisation of homestays. We will have to do away with the red tape caused by the administrative barrier.
Tourists are not coming to enjoy five-star facilities. What they need is security, zero moral policing, and safety. But we can see that we are lacking in all three aspects. It’s not possible for individual households to manage foreign exchange or foreigners’ registration and control. All that should be dealt with at the panchayat level. What we can give is pure Malayali hospitality to 30 million tourists. I think that possibility exists.
You have made many predictions, especially the disaster involving houseboats...
Yes, that’s true. I’ve predicted about boats in general and houseboats in particular, especially the fire in houseboats. It’s the burning of materials that results in fire. A houseboat means almost everything can be burned down. If such an accident happens in the middle of the lake, there is no rescue mechanism. Nobody is prepared. We’ve all gone for a houseboat ride, and not even a safety briefing is given. Clearly, that’s a problem.
Several initiatives, like Rebuild Kerala and Room for River, are being taken up by politicians and the government. How effective are they?
A considerable amount of work is happening under the Rebuild Kerala initiative. On the website, we can see a lot of activities are going on. The Alappuzha-Changanassery road is an example. Room for River is conceptually a good project. But that will again need changes in land use. There will be restrictions and society will not accept them.
Another issue is waste management. What’s the solution?
It is a problem worldwide. Not in my backyard, or NIMBY, is a mindset that exists. So, my waste is my responsibility is a good campaign. In my opinion, we need to have a comprehensive study on waste management in Kerala. There are several waste streams... household, medical, e-waste, etc. There should be separate and sustainable endpoints for every stream. There should be an economic model. For example, in Western countries, when we buy a fridge, they charge the disposable fee as well. So we can leave it with any person who is dealing with it.
They have collectively established a system for recycling it. In every village, there is a resource recycling system. Anybody can leave it there… unused items. In Kerala, we have only one treatment plant for medical waste, which is in Palakkad. In many countries, there is a wastewater charge as well. But we are not willing to pay. The consequence is that we don’t always get clean water in Kerala and India. That translates to mosquitoes and stray dogs. For medical waste, we need three or four plants in Kerala. For electronic waste, we need just one for Kerala. There are huge employment opportunities too.
What are your views on the Mullaperiyar dam?
It has almost been an emotional issue for Malayalis for the past 40 years. The first time I ever heard of the dam was in 1978, in a newspaper. It said that if Mullaperiyar were to burst, we could sail boats over UC College (in Aluva) and all (chuckles). My father was working with FACT (Udyogamandal, near Aluva) at the time.
My biggest fear then was how he would come home if something like that happened. Every 10 years, we have this scare coming up. Our hypothesis for a long time had been that it is a dam from 1887, it is very old and vulnerable, and therefore be decommissioned. The security concerned with a dam is not related to when it is built or how old it is. It depends on how well it is being maintained. What we have to do is to ensure that this is being done properly in the case of Mullaperiyar.
There are over 60 major dams in Kerala. We have to analyse all these dams in the same framework. Are we maintaining all these 60 dams in the right way? How will it affect the people if something happens to these dams? If we analyse it in such a common framework, then you’ll have some dams which are completely fine and safe, some which need improved attention, and some dams that may have to be decommissioned for safety reasons. Then, we will have better credibility. Now, as we put it, all other 59 dams are totally fine and only this dam is a problem. So, one who looks at it from the outside wouldn’t find it credible enough.
What is your take on the increasing migration among youth?
I left Kerala in 1986 and have been a migrant since. I have benefited enormously from migration... socially from network, financially from exposure... and I think it is a good thing that people migrate. I support migration in every sense. I do not wish to constrain the children in Kerala. I think that’s wrong. At the same time, improving higher education in Kerala, improving the economic opportunity here, and putting it forth for people who wish to stay and for people from around the world to come in and experience... I can support that.
The initiative to improve education is welcome if it isn’t to keep the people here. I also know that’s not going to work. Keeping people here is impossible. People aren’t leaving because of the poor quality of education here. Those who leave for education have been leaving for a long time, the best and the brightest students always left to join premier institutions outside. That hasn’t changed.
The change happened elsewhere. Now, even for people from the lower middle class, it is affordable to go abroad. The networking and support has become a whole ecosystem now and thousands of people leave in this manner. They post it on social media, and other people aspire for that. It is not wrong. This is what’s happening and this is going to increase. Part of it is social... people want exposure, life, freedom, etc... and part of it is economic.
What are the strong and weak points of Malayalis?
I haven’t analysed it deeply but one point that I have experienced well is the huge sense of solidarity that we have in and outside Kerala. Here, it only happens during a crisis, but outside, we experience it every day. Secondly, the communal harmony we have, cooperative action, and the deep-rooted embeddedness of democracy in our society means that people are aware of their rights and are willing to stand up for their rights.
I don’t know if you have heard of the six levels of separation theory, that is anyone from any corner of the world is away from any other person from another corner in only six handshakes. President Trump and I are only six hands away. The level of separation in Kerala between the lowest and the highest is even smaller. Anybody in Kerala can reach our ministers with three handshakes. This isn’t really possible in other parts of our country.
And weak points?
Weak points are now the media. Always highlighting weak and depressing things and spreading negativity... that is my opinion.
You have interacted with leaders across the world. How do you analyse and evaluate our political leaders?
Our political leaders are very humble compared to people in other parts of the world. The problem with politicians all over the world is that they work on incentives. In America, during the election, the senators campaigned on bills they presented in the parliament. But here, leaders attend marriage functions and get support (chuckles).
We now have several experts in different fields in Kerala. Do you think the government is not utilising them properly?
I don’t have a complaint that the government isn’t utilising my expertise. Kerala government will be the first in India to create a structured platform like Loka Kerala Sabha to connect with people abroad. The government is also preparing a database. I think it is a two-way street. People abroad should come and make an effort to be connected. The government should also take the initiative. Our policies are driven by civil servants, not by technical experts. Which isn’t ideal. We have to ask whether the experts in our universities are involved in policy making.
TNIE team: Rajesh Abraham, Rajesh Ravi, Manoj Viswanathan, P Ramdas, Anu Kuruvilla, Krishna Kumar K E, Harikrishna B A Sanesh (photos), Pranav V P (video)