MALAPPURAM: After an eventful campaign and an impressive voter turnout in the Nilambur by-election, the leaders of political parties have settled down for a stock-taking exercise to reach a rough assessment of the votes polled in their favour.
Interestingly, the parties have two sets of calculations — one for public consumption and the other a closer-to-reality picture gathered from grassroots workers. And there is a huge gap between the margin of victory the parties claim in public and their real expectations.
The Congress camp boasts that the magic number will cross 25,000 and touch an all-time high, while insiders say it will be around 10,000. The UDF is expecting a strong lead in the panchayats of Moothedam, Vazhikkadavu, Edakkara and Chungathara. The front is expected to maintain a slight lead in the Nilambur municipality and the Amarambalam, Karulai and Pothukallu panchayats. At the same time, the LDF seems to be more realistic in their expectations and fix the margin between a humble 2,000 and 3,000 votes.
Though the leaders are presenting a brave face, there is palpable anxiety in all the camps.
The greatest worry for the LDF and the UDF is the votes that might have gone in favour of P V Anvar, who fought the election as an independent. Anwar sticks to his claim that he will emerge victorious with over 75,000 votes and the votes he garners will be decisive in the election.
Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan is keeping his fingers crossed because he has a high stake in this election, for he was instrumental in keeping the former LDF MLA at bay. Satheesan was accused of being rigid in his dealings with Anvar, whose support would have been hugely beneficial for the UDF. The result will be crucial for Satheesan as he asserted that he will be solely responsible for any debacle.
The IUML is quite happy that there is a general impression that the party had presented an impressive show in the campaign. Though party supremo Panakkad Syed Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal was in Saudi Arabia to perform hajj pilgrimage, his absence was compensated by the well-orchestrated work done by other leaders and cadre alike.
The Jamaat-e-Islami, which was the whipping boy for the CPM throughout the campaign, fervently wishes for a strong reply to the CPM through the votes. CPM state secretary M V Govindan’s remarks on RSS-CPM association on the final day of campaigning also helped the IUML-Jamaat combine to pursue their argument with added vigour.
Meanwhile, the NDA hopes that Christian votes will help the front deliver a good performance.
EXPECTATIONS VS REALITY
Interestingly, the parties have two sets of calculations — one for public consumption and the other a closer-to-reality picture gathered from grassroots workers. And there is a huge gap between the margin of victory the parties claim in public and their real expectations.