BHUBANESWAR:The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said the El Nino factor may persist during the south west monsoon and predicted that showers may remain below normal in the country. It has forecast the monsoon to be 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
However, the impact of El Nino factor on monsoon in Odisha is unlikely to be significant. During the June-September period, the State receives 1,149 mm rain.
Director of IMD, Odisha, Sarat Chandra Sahu said the impact of El Nino on monsoon is likely to be weak since the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly ranges between 0.5 and 0.9 degree Celsius above normal. Anything above one degree C of the normal SST makes it a moderate El Nino impact.
The Met office said the current study of SST over western and central Pacific Ocean indicates prevalence of El Nino factor though it is still in the weak category. During the December-January-February period, the SST was measured at 0.6 degree Celsius higher than normal, whereas in Nov-Dec-Jan, it was 0.7 degree Celsius above normal. It was same in the Oct-Nov-Dec period too.
“Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. The latest forecast from the IMD-IITM coupled model forecast indicates that El Nino conditions are likely to persist during south west monsoon season,” the weather office’s first stage forecast issued on Wednesday stated.
The weather office also said there exists a not-so-significant but negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition which will continue to prevail during the monsoon season.
Since the sea surface temperature over Pacific and Indian Oceans impact Indian summer monsoon, the IMD said it is keeping a close watch on the developments.
“Under the prevailing circumstances, if you look at the four years when south west monsoon was impacted by El Nino conditions, Odisha may not feel the pinch,” Sahu said.
During 1994, the State received an excess rainfall of 32 per cent whereas in 1997, the rainfall was 5 per cent above normal. Similarly in 2006, it was 35 per cent in excess of normal rainfall. Only in 2002, the rainfall was 19 per cent in deficit, Sahu said. In 2014, the State had received 1248.5 mm rain, which was 9 per cent above normal.