BHUBANESWAR:THE India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted onset of the south west monsoon in Kerala on May 29. There will be a model error of four days. The normal date for arrival of monsoon in Kerala is June 1. Last year, it remained true to its prediction of May 30.In Odisha, the weather office said, the exact date for arrival would depend on the low pressure which is likely to form over Arabian Sea off Kerala coast around May 25-26.
“If formed, the system may impact the onset of monsoon at Kerala. Only then can we have a fair prediction on its arrival in the State because there is no one-to-one correlation between Kerala and Odisha onset dates,” said Director, IMD, Odisha Sarat Chandra Sahu.
Generally, the south-west monsoon arrives in Odisha on June 10. However, in the last few years, the arrival has been erratic. In 2017, it made onset on June 12 though the monsoon had hit Kerala on May 30.
Similarly, in 2016, it arrived on June 17, nine days after its onset at Kerala. The monsoon had touched Kerala coast on June 8 against a forecast for June 7. In 2015, the rains arrived only on June 21, a good eight days after it was predicted to make its onset.
Sahu said there are many factors which impact the monsoon arrival in Odisha. The conditions in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will play a major role in deciding the progress of the monsoon current.