BHUBANESWAR: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecast that a low pressure area is likely to form over north Andaman sea by Saturday and concentrate into a depression.
Regional Met office said the current conditions are favourable for the formation of a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and its movement towards the east coast.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over east-central Bay during the subsequent 48 hours.
“We are closely monitoring the development. Current conditions like sea surface temperature, good source of latent heat, humidity factor, low vertical wind shear, and others are favourable for formation of cyclones over Bay of Bengal,” Director, Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, HR Biswas said.
Cyclonic storm MAHA over Lakshadweep and adjoining south-east Arabian Sea, cyclonic storm Kyarr over west-central Arabian Sea and tropical storm Matmo will have no significant impact on the system developing over the Bay of Bengal, he added.
“The sea surface temperature should be more than 26.5 degree to form tropical cyclones. However, it is not necessary that favourable conditions will always lead to formation of the storms,” Biswas said.
Weather experts said on an average, five to six tropical cyclones with maximum sustained wind speed of 63 km per hour or more form in the Bay of Bengal every year, of which two to three reach severe stage with maximum sustained wind speed of 89 km per hour.
The post-monsoon storms are more devastating in nature. The Bay of Bengal is a potentially active region for the formation of tropical cyclones.
There are eight maritime states along the eastern and western coasts of India that have deeply suffered from tropical cyclones, out of which the eastern coastal states - Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal - have suffered the most.