BHUBANESWAR: After later arrival, the south-west monsoon withdrawal from the state might also get late, said experts. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said withdrawal of the south-west monsoon is likely in the first week of October, a month behind the normal schedule.
As per our weather models, forecast does not indicate establishment of an anticyclone in lower troposphere levels over north-western parts of India (which is an indication of beginning of withdrawal of monsoon) up to October 6.
However, from October 7 models indicate development of a weak anticyclone over the region.
IMD officials said Odisha has received 39 per cent surplus rainfall in September. “There is no indication of monsoon’s withdrawal from Rajasthan till the first week of October. Though there is no direct co-relation between withdrawal of monsoon from Rajasthan and Odisha but monsoon retreating first from the State seems unlikely,” said HR Biswas, Director, Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre.
Normally the withdrawal starts on September 1 and reaches Odisha by October 10. Director, Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC), Sarat Chandra Sahu, attributed the delay to the systems over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
“The State will witness scattered rainfall till October 3. The monsoon withdrawal normally takes place in Odisha in the second week of October but this time it might get delayed by few days,” Sahu said. Significant weather systems might not form over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal after October 5, he added.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said, “The retreat of monsoon begins in the first week of September from Rajasthan - the first post for withdrawal and the last for monsoon onset but variability have been observed. In the last 10 years, the commencement of withdrawal has been as late as September 29 and early as September 4 but this year the withdrawal is going to create some kind of a record.”
Meanwhile, regional Met office on Saturday predicted thunderstorm and lightning at isolated places in Khurda, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Sundargarh, Jharsuguda and Keonjhar districts on Sunday.