BHUBANESWAR: Odisha might witness below normal rainfall this monsoon, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s first seasonal forecast which was released on Friday. “The dynamic multi-model ensemble forecast indicates the probability that parts of Odisha, especially northern region, will receive below normal rainfall during monsoon 2021,” Director General of Meteorology, IMD, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TNIE.
There is a probability that north Odisha, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh will receive below normal rainfall, he added. Such a condition arises when not many low pressure systems form over the north Bay of Bengal. IMD’s tercile probability forecast for this monsoon season has indicated 65 per cent to 75 per cent probability of below normal rainfall at few places in north Odisha. The forecast has also brought some reason to cheer as few parts in south Odisha are expected to receive above normal rainfall during this monsoon season between June and September.
Odisha’s average rainfall after the onset of south-west monsoon is around 1,159 mm. However, south-west monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal, 96 per cent to 104 per cent of long period average.
Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecast indicates neutral ENSO conditions may continue over equatorial Pacific and negative IOD conditions may develop over the Indian Ocean during the ensuing monsoon season, said the IMD. Studies have shown that a positive IOD year sees more than normal rainfall over central India.