BHUBANESWAR: A day after Odisha government projected 14,000 cases daily during the third wave of COVID-19 basing on projection of National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), the SUTRA model of IIT-Kanpur claimed the State may report only around 2,000 cases given the current scenario of vaccination.
Deputy Director of IIT-Kanpur Prof Manindra Agrawal said that Odisha has vaccinated more people than the national average and is one of the states with a decent vaccination coverage. If the current pace of vaccination continues and all restrictions are lifted, the cases are likely to increase gradually in September and October.
"As per our mathematical model, Odisha may see 2,000 cases a day in the worst case scenario and it may go up to 5,000 if any new infectious mutant surfaces like the delta variant in the second wave. With the increase in number of infections, if the government again goes for temporary lockdown, the situation will be like the thick-tail scenario that is now being experienced," he told The New Indian Express.
The SUTRA-Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach model prepared by Agrawal along with integrated Defence staff M Kanitkar and Prof M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad explicitly accounts for the fact that there would be large numbers of undetected asymptomatic patients.
"As per the recent national survey, the sero-prevalence in Odisha is around 68 per cent, which is quite good. If the third wave hits the State as projected, the impact will remain till December and then decline gradually if there is no immune-escape variant," he said.
If any new variant emerges and it is found 50 per cent more infectious than the current delta variant, Prof Agrawal said, it will impact the size of the wave. "However, hospitals will not get stretched, because those who lose immunity or do not acquire full immunity on vaccination, are likely to catch mild infection if at all," he added.
Responding to the IIT-Kanpur projection, the State health authorities said this can also be a scenario if no new variant surfaces.
Meanwhile, taking a U-turn from his earlier comment on the third wave projection, Director of Medical Education and Training Dr CBK Mohanty said the third wave will not be as intense as the second wave. "Different models are projecting different numbers. Even if the third wave comes, its impact may not be similar to that of the second wave unless there is a new variant of the virus," he added.