Death rate hits bottom as coronavirus cases double in Odisha

Odisha’s Covid-19 case fatality rate (CFR) during the first wave last year was 0.56 per cent.
Representational image (Photo | PTI)
Representational image (Photo | PTI)

BHUBANESWAR: Odisha’s Covid-19 case fatality rate (CFR) during the first wave last year was 0.56 percent.  In the second wave over the last one and half-months, the CFR has dropped to 0.15 percent not only leaving health experts baffled but also, more importantly, giving credence to the allegations of all-out number fudging of deaths by the State government. 

While the ferocious wave with newer strains having multiple times transmission capability is creating havoc across the country - Odisha not untouched - the drop in deaths over last year is just incomprehensible. At the peak of first wave last year, Odisha recorded a maximum of 4,356 cases. This year it is consistently logging two or two and half times the number at over 10,000 daily, but death rate just does not match up given the fact that there has been no significant improvement in health facilities over last year and that the rural spread, where healthcare is bare minimum, has reached alarming proportions.

Considering the extent of infection, health experts involved in Covid treatment claimed that the fatality cannot be less than 50 a day at a CFR of 0.5 pc if not more.  Astonishingly, the official death toll is not even 50 pc of that. The highest 22 deaths has been recorded only three times this month. 

Death rate hits bottom as cases double 

A comparison of death rate with other states reporting similar or lower daily case count than Odisha makes the latter’s case more confounding. With 10,000 or more daily cases, Rajasthan and Haryana have been reporting an average 150 and 160 deaths respectively daily. Punjab, Gujarat and Bihar are announcing around 180, 100 and 80 deaths a day respectively with the number of infections between 5000 and 10,000. Even with daily caseload of less than 5,000 a day, the number of Covid deaths in states like Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand and Telangana is more than that of Odisha. The death count in these small states ranges between 30 and 80. 

Neighbouring Chhattisgarh from where the western Odisha districts imported the infection is now registering more than 150 deaths a day, down from over 200, with a daily case count of less than 10,000. A recent genome sequencing data had indicated that the infection in 10 western Odisha districts is triggered by the B.1.617.1 variant of the most infectious ‘double mutant’ strain that is prevalent in Chhattisgarh. “Is it possible that the same virus strain can cause more damage in Chhattisgarh, but not in Odisha? If so, and Odisha has been successful in preventing many deaths, then it is a matter of serious study,” health experts stated.

Noted virologist Dr T Jacob John said the death toll announced by Odisha looks unrealistic given the lack of public health infrastructure in rural areas where the infection is raging and the number of bodies cremated across the State. Every death should be counted during a pandemic like this, he said. Expressing concern over data manipulation, Dr John said government is not serious about people dying of Covid. “Many in rural regions are not testing. But, people are dying with Covid symptoms. These deaths are not being recorded. Everybody tries to hide data. If you do not know how to tackle a problem, you deny the problem. That’s what is happening. Its consequences can be disastrous,” he warned.

Other health experts too do not buy the claims of the government. Dean (Research) of AIIMS-Bhubaneswar Dr Binod Patro said the death toll reflects two things. It can be a good indicator of treatment provisioning or under-reporting. But the scientific community is mostly claiming that the states are hiding Covid data. This narrative can be changed only if every death is investigated and made public, he observed.

State Health department authorities, however, insisted that the CFR is low in Odisha only because the government has strengthened critical care facilities. Additional Chief Secretary of Health PK Mohapatra said a team of experts has been engaged to specially monitor the critical care. As part of the management, every collector has to ensure the availability of essential drugs and oxygen at the Covid care facility every day. Timely treatment is basically helping people to recover, he stated.

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