Padampur bypoll is done and dusted. For all the big decibels surrounding how this fight between the BJD and the BJP would go down to the wire ended in a whimper - and in a thumping mandate in favour of ruling party’s Barsha Singh Bariha.
Barsha’s was a record that even eclipsed her father Bijay Ranjan Singh Bariha’s numbers. The 29-year-old law graduate who made her debut as a lawmaker shored the ruling party’s vote share by a significant 17 per cent in the Assembly segment.
For the BJD, this win was much-needed despite the brute majority it enjoys in the state Assembly. The loss in Dhamnagar did jolt the ruling party out of its state of assuredness which many from the regional outfit acknowledge was necessary and came at the right time as well. This is likely the last election before the big battle of 2024 and two back-to-back losses was not what the BJD would have liked.
The by-election, however, marked exchange of acrimony unheard of in the past in the state. Tit-for-tat tax raids and volley of accusations, both at personal and party levels, were traded by both the sides. But, by December 8 afternoon all the conjecturers were put to rest by the hefty victory margin Barsha delivered. The BJD enjoys a strong rural connect and it left nothing to chance by deputing ministers and MLAs to every panchayat so much so that the winter session of the Assembly saw a significant drop in attendance of BJD members. On the other hand, the BJP despite having an MP from Bargarh, did not have enough men on the ground to match BJD’s might notwithstanding a spirited run by Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan and three other cabinet colleagues.
But make no mistake there was a certain sense of trepidation even in BJD camp despite the confidence of a win. It required Chief Minister and BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik whose campaign seemed to have turned the polls on its head. But a 42,000-margin was beyond expectations of the party. Yes, the Congress vote transfer seemed to have done the trick because BJP nominee and former MLA Pradip Purohit did hold on to his votes. But much as the ruling dispensation would like people to believe that voters rejected BJP’s brand of politics, it was out in open that its own good governance narrative was not working wonders either, given the unflattering pace of development in the Assembly segment.
But elections are all about micro-management. That perhaps was also the reason, for the first time, new social alliances were stitched up and consolidated in Padampur. Unlike the Hindi belt and certain south Indian states where caste-based politics runs deep, Odisha has remained immune to such a pattern in its voting behaviour. But the bypoll saw both the BJD and BJP adopting strategies to strengthen their position among the Kultas, a major backward class in the region. The saffron party inducted Sanjay Bhoi, a former Congress MP from Bargarh while BJD roped in Mahendra Badhai, a state administrative officer who took voluntary retirement to join the ruling party. Both belong to the Kultas which account for about 15 per cent of the population in the region. The assurances to Kulta Samaj and Mehers in the midst of elections were signs that the BJD would not shy away from identity-based politics when the push comes to shove.
The OBCs form about 54 per cent of Odisha’s population and all parties would like them aligned. In early 2020, the BJD constituted a backward class commission for enumeration of the backward classes with a clear eye on this segment. The BJP, on its part, has been piling on pressure on the Naveen Patnaik government for reservation for OBCs and socially and economically backward castes (SEBC) in employment and educational institutions. This could make the electoral politics interesting as well as complex in the state in the days to come.
Siba Mohanty
Resident Editor, Odisha
sibamohanty@newindianexpress.com