BHUBANESWAR: The low pressure area formed over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on Friday is likely to turn into a cyclonic storm by Sunday evening. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is expected to move north-westwards, intensify into a depression by Saturday evening and further into a cyclone over east-central Bay of Bengal in the subsequent 24 hours.
The system is likely to continue to move north-westwards and reach west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts by Tuesday. “Further path of the system can be ascertained after it intensifies into a depression,” said Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre Scientist, Umasankar Das.
Director of the Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) of SOA University Sarat Sahu said the tropical storm may change its course on May 10. “The cyclone may change its path to north or north-eastwards and move along the Odisha coast or cross Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara districts. There is also a possibility that the storm will move towards West Bengal or Bangladesh coasts. More details will emerge after the low pressure area intensifies into a depression,” he added.
Sahu said if the cyclone changes its path, its intensity will weaken. “The sea surface temperature near the coast is not very warm. Besides, the land is also not warm due to the recent thundershower activity. So, once the system crosses the land, its intensity will reduce,” he said.
On the other hand, the private weather forecaster Skymet on Friday said that the probability of the storm coming closer to north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts is growing large and thereafter, the statistical records of climatology leaves bi-fold trajectory for the cyclone.
“The first scenario takes the storm for a direct strike over bordering areas of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha. The alternate trajectory, albeit equally strong, can make the storm re-curve to run parallel to the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha and head for West Bengal and Bangladesh,” said Skymet. Ocean heat potential is a major contributor to the growth of storms. Currently, the entire Bay of Bengal is hotter than normal and the sea surface temperature is in excess of 30 degree Celsius.
The excessive heat potential of the sea surface can increase the severity, more than gauged by the models. Vertical wind shear remains moderate and unlikely to suppress further expansion. Climatological features suggest cyclone formation over the area may be earlier than expected, the private weather forecaster further said.
Meanwhile, IMD has said light to moderate rainfall is likely to occur at many places over the districts of coastal Odisha and heavy rainfall is expected at one or two places over Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts on Tuesday when the system approaches the coast.
Gale wind speed reaching 65 kmph to 75 kmph and gusting up to 85 kmph is likely to prevail over central parts of Bay of Bengal on Monday. Wind speed reaching 70 kmph to 80 kmph and gusting up to 90 kmph is expected over west-central and adjoining north-west and east-central Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.
The IMD has advised fishermen to not venture into the deep sea area over central Bay of Bengal on Monday and Tuesday and over north-west Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.