BHUBANESWAR: Even as conditions are favourable for withdrawal of south-west monsoon from some parts of Odisha, rainfall activity may occur in the State under the influence of a fresh low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal around October 20.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said there is possibility of formation of a cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around October 17/18 with west-northwestwards movement. “It is expected to intensify into a low pressure area by October 20 over south-east and adjoining central parts of Bay of Bengal,” said Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre scientist Umasankar Das.
There is a moderate probability that the low pressure area will move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over west-central Bay of Bengal in the beginning of week two (October 20 to 26). “Whether the system will intensify further, its path and what impact it will have over Odisha will be ascertained in the coming days,” said Das.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said, “A low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal early next week. The remnant of an active weather system over the south-east Asian region is likely to make its way to BOB shortly.”
Currently, a depression is marked over south Vietnam, south Laos, south-east Thailand and neighbouring west Pacific Ocean with a well marked cyclonic circulation over that area. This weather system will move eastward across Thailand and Myanmar over the next two days. Weakened cyclonic circulation of this depression is expected to hop across the Arakan coast and enter BOB on October 16. The cyclonic circulation over extreme east-central BOB will move over the central parts on October 17. It is expected to consolidate further and turn into a low pressure area over west-central BOB on October 18, said Skymet.
“Looks like the weather feature will remain parked over the sea for the subsequent two to three days, albeit it will gather pace and force. It is likely to shift closer to the coastline of south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu during this period. It seems to be breaching the coastline and move inland on October 22,” it added.