Double whammy for Odisha: Below normal monsoon and a warmer June

Heatwave condition may make a comeback if state records below normal rains next month
Image used for representation
Image used for representation(Photo | Parveen Negi)

BHUBANESWAR: The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s monsoon update has come as a double whammy for Odisha - below normal rainfall during the season and a warmer June.

The national weather agency on Monday forecast below normal south-west monsoon rains between June and September. As per the IMD, normal to below normal rainfall will occur in many areas of northern part of north-west, north-east and eastern part of central India including Odisha.

The monsoon is not expected to make an impressive start either as IMD has forecast below normal rainfall in many areas of eastern parts of central India in June.

While the IMD forecasts below normal rains, the state is also likely to experience above normal day and night temperatures in June. Heatwave condition may make a comeback too, if Odisha records below normal rains next month.

South-west monsoon normally arrives in the state around June 12 and weather experts said the good news is severe cyclonic storm Remal has enhanced the cross equatorial flow which may assist the progress of the rain-bearing weather system in the Bay of Bengal branch. However, chances of the system pushing away the monsoon arrival exist.

Meanwhile, IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the probability of the state receiving below-normal rains during this monsoon season is 35 per cent to 45 per cent. “The probability of Odisha receiving below normal rains is not very high. Climatologically, in the past years when La Nina or El Nino conditions prevailed, north-eastern states, Odisha and other adjoining areas had recorded below normal rains during the south-west monsoon season,” he told The New Indian Express.

The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) has indicated that La Nina conditions are most likely to develop during this south-west monsoon season.

Weather experts are, however, still optimistic that the state may receive normal monsoon rains this season. During monsoon, the state’s rainfall activity witnesses a significant increase due to the low pressure areas forming over the Bay of Bengal.

“The low-pressure areas form under the influence of wind shear, monsoon trough and as the sea surface temperature remains more than 27 degree Celsius. Every year during monsoon season, at least 10 to 12 low-pressure areas form over the Bay of Bengal and this intensifies the rainfall activity in Odisha,” said a weather expert.

Since 2000, the state has not received below normal monsoon rains. This year, the rainfall pattern could be erratic with some districts recording deficit showers but overall there is still hope that the state will experience normal showers, he said.

Odisha comes under the core monsoon zone and the state normally receives 1,150 mm rainfall between June and September.

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