Is an October cyclone brewing over Bay of Bengal?

As per the IMD, a low-pressure area may form over the central Bay of Bengal around October 22.
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BHUBANESWAR: It’s the cyclone season and forecast of a fresh low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal around October 22 has fuelled speculations of a significantly stronger weather system - a cyclonic storm - for the east coast with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) closely monitoring the conditions.

As per the IMD, a low-pressure area may form over central Bay of Bengal around October 22. Its movement is predicted to be northwestward with gradual intensification.

However, there is no unanimity among models over the peak intensification of the system. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate the low pressure may turn into a depression.

The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), however, points to a severe cyclonic storm. All models though are unanimous that the system’s movement will be towards Odisha coast.

The NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM) does not indicate any cyclogenesis during the next 10 days. The Joint Typhoon Centre’s global hazards projections points at a tropical cyclone probability from 20 pc to 40 pc.

Weather experts said though it is too early to predict the system’s path and intensification, Odisha may face its brunt if it intensifies and continues its northwest track.

The natural calamity prone Odisha has a history of being battered by cyclones emerging from the Bay of Bengal side of Indian Ocean. The super cyclone of 1999 had hit the state on October 29, leaving behind an unprecedented trail of devastation still fresh in memory. Others such as Phalini (2013), Hudhud (2014) and Titli (2018) had occurred in October while Fani, a May cyclone, tore through Puri and Bhubaneswar in 2019.

Is an October cyclone brewing over Bay of Bengal?

Meanwhile, in its extended range outlook for the weeks October 18-24 and October 25-31, the IMD said various models indicate intensification of the system into a depression around October 24.

“The anticipated system is being closely monitored. Whether it will intensify further or have any impact on Odisha can be ascertained in the coming days,” said Manorama Mohanty, director, of Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre.

Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the range of 28 degree Celsius to 32 degree C over the entire Bay of Bengal and a warmer sea helps the formation of a significant system.

Private weather forecaster Skymet was cautious in its forecast. “The cyclonic circulation is likely to get organised further and also move to the central parts of Bay of Bengal on October 21 and 22. Further prediction of this system may not be authentic at this stage. Weather model's reliability is lowered after four to five days and therefore, the weather system will be under observation for the next 48 hours,” it said.

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