HYDERABAD: A new set of mathematical projections have been made which peg COVID-19 numbers in Telangana anywhere between 2.84 lakh (which is a three-fold increase from the present 70,958) and 9.66 lakh by September 30.
The mathematical projections have been made by using two scenarios- a conservative scenario, as per which the caseload of the State will be 2.84 lakh and daily death toll will be 18. In the second alternative scenario, which is the worst case scenario, there will be an exponential progression with 9.66 lakh caseload and 83 deaths per day.
"For the model, we have used the data from June 21 to July 24, and calculated what the situation will be on September 30. We have used the Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Model for predicting conservative estimates, and the Expositional Regression Model for alternative estimates," said Dr Saswat Mishra, Assistant Professor, Centre for Health Management, ASCI.
The date September 30 is chosen based on the general assumption that the country will likely see the beginning of a peak between September end and November. These projections are a work in progress for a report being made by a four-member team from the Centre for Health Care Management, Administrative Staff College of India (ASCI), headed by Professor Subodh Kandamuthan, and FICCI's TMI group headed by T Muralidharan. The projections will be submitted to the government, along with specific recommendations on what can be done.
The data were discussed in a webinar held by ASCI and FICCI- TMI group followed by the Twitter release of data. "Projection are just a part of the study and not absolutes. Our recommendations is to improve the PHC, UPHC and primary level private healthcare mechanism in districts so that one does not reach a stage of hospitalisation," added Professor Subodh Kandamuthan, Professor and Director Centre for Health Care Management.
The other recommendations include creating a dedicated supply chain for pharmaceutical needs and establishment of a Covid monitoring cell for live data on beds and other needs. Some of the experts at the webinar recommended the government to supply oxygen cylinders at PHC level and start releasing data on SARI and ILI cases so that an actual picture is clear.