HYDERABAD: A new analysis of how COVID-19 cases have been increasing on a daily basis in the past five days shows that Telangana’s doubling rate for the new cases would only be 7.4 days.
This means that from the current 11,000 cases (as on Thursday), the total in the State may approximately reach a whopping 22,000 in a matter of just seven-eight days.
As per the projections, this is the lowest time taken for COVID-19 cases to double across the country. Close on its heels is Delhi, which is projected to take 13.3 days for doubling its present COVID numbers. Even a State like Maharashtra, which has a higher number and wider spread of cases, is projected to double its tally in 24 days.
“The doubling rate has been arrived at by calculating the average growth rate over the past five days. We assume that the same growth rate will continue for the coming days, and based on that, whenever the cases double, we can arrive at the doubling rate,” explained Rijo M John, a health economist based out of Kerala, who has conducted the analysis.
The data is crucial because it shows that with the given growth rate, how many days it will take for the cases to double.
“This is a mathematical computation and could vary from what actually happens, based on how many tests are conducted. In Telangana’s case, the growth rate went from 7.6 per cent, to 8.9 per cent, to 9.7 per cent, to 9.9 per cent to 10 per cent. An average of this can be a way to assume that in seven days the State will have about 22,000 cases,” added Rijo.
These numbers can be used to analyse Telangana’s preparedness for the pandemic. Currently, as per the State’s medical bulletin, about 17,000 beds are present, of which only six per cent are occupied. However, assuming that cases are to double in seven days and recoveries may not occur at the same rate, it is pertinent to know how many beds, hospitals and quarantine facilities would be enough for the present
growth rate.
Telangana sees over 1 thousand cases in highest one-day spike
The severity of the COVID-19 crisis in Telangana became increasingly evident on Saturday, as the State recorded its highest single-day spike till date, with 1,087 new cases. Six new deaths were also reported