The big pre-poll churn has begun. Top BSP leader in Uttar Pradesh, Swami Prasad Maurya, quit his party to hobnob with the rivals, including the BJP. After being on the verge of quitting, Navjot Singh Sidhu is back in the Punjab BJP core group. The north-eastern parties’ alliance, with BJP at helm, is meeting in Guwahati to finalise its charter for the region. Sacked Congressmen in Uttarakhand are ensconced in the saffron party. The BJP’s game plan for five state Assembly elections scheduled early next year—a tougher contest this time—is set.
Odds first. BJP is in power in Punjab (as alliance partner) and Goa. If it loses any of these states to anti-incumbency, it will break its record of retaining power in party-ruled states where elections have been held since 2013. If BJP manages to dislodge two Congress governments—Uttarakhand and Manipur—it can move closer to achieving Modi’s dream of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’.
While UP is hogging all the limelight, BJP chief Amit Shah is also focussing on other four states.
He is in Uttarakhand to strategise. Sources said, apart from holding closed-door meetings with party leaders in Haldwani, he will address a rally in religiously significant Hardwar to launch fresh offensive against the Harish Rawat government.
Shah will then travel to Guwahati on July 13 to hold meeting with the newly floated North Eastern Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a conglomerate of regional parties. It will set the tone for BJP’s campaign in neighbouring Manipur, where party won two seats in a by-poll, sending a chilling message to the Congress government, led by CM Okram Ibobi Singh.
He has been in power for three terms. BJP general secretary Ram Madhav is the man for this region.
He was in Assam this week to hold similar strategy meet of NEDA. A party source explained, “It will let the nationalist party to gain roots in the region, and moreover in 2019 elections, BJP can aim to target 20 seats, even if there is anti-incumbency in some other regions of the country.”
Punjab is a cause of worry for BJP, as Amarinder Singh-led Congress and AAP are making gains.
BJP has introduced its best bet, Sidhu, into the arena, despite the fact that ally Akali Dal is opposed to him.
The move indicates that though BJP will continue the alliance, it is looking at carving out its own independent identity. Sidhu, with his clean image and gift of gab, can blunt Amarinder and Arvind Kejriwal’s edge.
Goa, the smallest state among all the poll-bound Assemblies, is facing a public spat between BJP and the RSS over language issues, where the ideological fountainhead’s state in-charge even threatened to work against the local government in elections.
The AAP will prove to be a challenge. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, an IITian, will be used extensively to counter fellow IITian Kejriwal’s campaign.