With the negotiations for government formation between the four parties — the BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress — all jostling for the mutual exclusion of one or the other group — getting vexatious, the political gamble to gain without compromising their own individual stance has rendered the exercise for an alternative extremely difficult.
What’s possible at this juncture? Abhijit Mulye analyses the reasons for the ‘Maha’ stalemate?
If the friend is with us we will strengthen him. If not, we will show him the earth,” BJP National President Amit Shah had said while referring to the Shiv Sena-but without naming it-as he addressed party cadres at Latur on January 6, 2019.
That was the time when the BJP-Shiv Sena relations had hit a new low.
In the next 45 days, the BJP had tried desperately to keep the Shiv Sena in good humour, even giving it almost equal share of Lok Sabha seats in the state (25:23), and thereafter, decided to contest the assembly polls in alliance with the ‘Tiger’.
That tiger has proved hard to dismount.
Fast forward to November: With the Assembly elections over, the issue of equal share and equal berths in power, including the chief ministership, has come to haunt the alliance with a fortnight gone since the results were announced and government formation nowhere in sight. This, amidst a falling off.
The political drama has been unfolding in Maharashtra at a rapid pace with each of the four main contestants -BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP and the Congress - trying hard to control the momentum.
President’s Rule has been invoked after Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari invited the BJP, then the Shiv Sena and NCP in quick succession, yet found no party in a situation to form the government.
Waiting game
As it appears at the moment, the BJP would like the drama to linger for a while.
The gamble: A delay in government formation may allow the BJP the much needed time to pull strings and explore possibilities of either Shiv Sena coming back to its fold, or prove a situation that helps it prove the number’s in the assembly with disgruntled defectors, frustrated by the wait, shifting to it in good numbers.
A waiting game is thus on.
On the other hand, Congress doesn’t appear to be in a haste to help form an alternative government either.
The party wants to be careful while treading unfamiliar waters and joining hands-even indirectly- with the ideologically opposed Shiv Sena, which could erode its stature as it did in Goa and Manipur earlier.
The President’s Rule interregnum gives it time to reassess its own priorities and weigh the opportunity at its own unhurried pace.
With the two national parties moving slowly, there would appear to be no outright winner or loser at this stage.
However, since the time that the Assembly poll results was declared, there have been enough political markers to define the advantage and disadvantage to each of the political forces at power play.
As of today, while the BJP would appear to be the biggest loser, the NCP- holding all the aces-would indeed seem to be the biggest gainer. And how!
Advantage NCP
The NCP was on the back foot going into the Assembly polls with 11 of its sitting MLAs and several of its influential leaders switching sides to the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The party initially took the desertions lightly.
Though the party could keep its tally intact in the Lok Sabha election, the results was an eye-opener as it took a beating in its own strongholds.
Party chief Sharad Pawar took upon himself to fight back. The result: The party not just overcame the adverse effect of poaching and desertions, but also improved on its 2014 Assembly tally-enough to make him the kingmaker.
The political mess post-2019 Assembly polls show that the out of the blue and stunning NCP recovery actually restricted the BJP from garnering additional crucial seats which could have kept the Sena quieter.
With the NCP emerging almost at par with the Sena in seats, it has emerged as the balancer vis a vis the Sena and the BJP.
Even the top leadership of Congress is dependent on the NCP to deal with its potential ally the Sena, even as the latter is solely dependent upon Chief Sharad Pawar to reach out to the Congress and act as the cementing factor.
While the NCP can pull strings to its benefit in any of the processes involved, it won’t be surprising if the party gets a large share of power. Whichever way the next government is formed, the party is unlikely to lose its position of advantage.
The development over the past week point to a BJP on the verge of losing power in the state despite having the largest pool of 105 seats and a graph which had been on the upswing in the last five years; constricting all political space available to others.
BJP miscalculation
The BJP’s meteoric rise had virtually finished off the rivals (Cong-NCP) and kept the allies under control.
Yet, the Saffron party now shows up on the losing side with the non-BJP groups, with a bigger tally of combined seats, suddenly closing ranks and in a position to hit back with its strongest and lasting ally, the Sena playing spoilsport.
The loss of the Sena has hit at the BJP’s power core. For, though the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit never missed out on a chance to publicly criticize the BJP on several issues, it had always stood by it on issues of national significance.
Many within the BJP believe the whole drama in Maharashtra slipped out of its hands only because the BJP didn’t demonstrate its distinguishing character, flexibility.
The party also appears to have been infected by Sena’s shortcomings like carrying a big ego, making it difficult to effect a climb down and digging a hole for itself.
When the Sena was denied more time to present formal papers of support from the NCP-Congress combine by Maharashtra Governor BS Koshyari on Monday, it appeared to have missed the bus. But, on ground the party doesn’t appear to have lost anything but for a non-significant post in the Union cabinet and a long-time ally in state politics that it had to constantly fight to even get the smallest of decisions in its favour.
The Sena certainly sees immediate gains on the other side. Far from being the loser in this game, it’s taken on the mantle of a deft gambler, not willing to concede any ground in the unfolding game.
The Sena, which is given to mixing politics and emotion, may still appear vulnerable in the new alliance it is trying to forge and lead but that’s a risk in any alliance, insiders say.
The fact remains, that it has managed to level the BJP’s Chanakya approach and put its much bigger ally on the defensive.
There is the chance that a Shiv Sena minus the BJP would stand the risk of losing a part of the Hindutva vote base which shored up its numbers.
Congress cautious
The Congress, a key player in the current political scenario of Maharashtra, seems to have minimized its losses. Its tally in the assembly has increased notwithstanding its completely demoralized cadres and out-of-connect top leadership.
In a way, the political impasse which calls for its involvement has been a gain out of nowhere- ‘a virtual lottery for the party without buying into the ticket,’ as a senior party leader put it.
Though the top party leadership didn’t give much importance to the assembly election and Rahul Gandhi addressed just three rallies on a single day, the state party organization worked well.
Here the party appears to have learnt the right lessons from the BJP’s thrust on rebuilding grassroots organization.
If the party can keep its focus on strengthening the organizational structure and making it run, even after coming to power, the party can hope to re-emerge stronger.
Yet, it has been cautious despite its regional satraps wanting it to swiftly seal the alliance and be part of the government.
The central leadership of the party took its time to arrive at the decision to support the NCP position-and by extension the Sena in Maharashtra- a huge paradigm shift for the party.
If successful, the Cong-NCP-Sena government can initiate an anti-BJP reversal nationally and on the lines of ‘anti-Congressism’ of the 1980s.
Insiders say, the hesitancy with which Congress has approached such a partnership was due to its reluctance to shed its secular credentials.
Yet, given the state of the party nationally, it is forced to explore chances of survival by allying with others.
If the BJP can be kept away by such efforts, it could spark off a revival, it’s think tank believes.
On the other hand, could there be a trackback for the BJP?
Perhaps Yes: Only if the Sena demand for a share of the CM’s post and major berths is met and on better terms now than what the NCP-Cong is likely to offer.
But whether that chance still exists for the BJP to get back into the game, remains a moot point.