NEW DELHI: He complex equations of religion and caste will be closely factored in by political parties in poll-bound Maharashtra and Haryana where reservation is a sensitive issue. Both the BJP-ruled states have seen caste-based quota agitations — Jats in Haryana and Marathas in Maharashtra. Adding fuel to the fire was the Centre’s attempt to dilute the SC/ST Act, coupled with the controversy over the eviction of tribals from forest areas.
“There have been some drastic decisions that the BJP governments — both state and Centre — have taken since assuming power in 2014. These issues will definitely play on the minds of the people.
The two states have a significant Dalit population, who traditionally have been Congress voters but shifted towards the BJP in past few years,” Dalit thinker Chandra Bhan Prasad said. While Dalit comprise around 11 per cent of Maharashtra’s population, they form a significant 20 per cent in Haryana. However, Prasad asserted that the voters would prefer a stable government rather than cobbled up alliances in power.
In Maharashtra, Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM were being seen as an alternative during the general elections. However, recent fissures within the alliance have put a question mark on its performance.
Similarly, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena was another non-playing partner of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha polls. However, it is still undecided whether to contest the polls, which may cost Thackeray dearly.
In Haryana too, the odds are against the opposition parties as the Manohar Lal Khattar-led BJP government is confident of retaining power. “Despite the presence of many non-traditional BJP voters and some decisions taken unfavourable decisions that the government has taken, the weakness of the Opposition will lend them a helping hand in the upcoming elections,” a researcher at PRS legislative said.
Demographic experts also echo similar views saying the Muslim population — 11 per cent in Haryana and almost 8 per cent in Maharashtra — will not affect the calculations of parties. “Compared to states like UP and Bihar, the percentage of Muslims is very less in the poll-bound states. Yet, the significance is further diminished in the polls due to other factors,” a research scholar from the Demographic Research Centre in Mumbai said.
Prasad also felt that anger among certain sections of people in both the states, which would have resulted from decisions such as banning of Triple Talaq, abrogation of Article 370 and enforcement of hefty penalties through the amended Motor Vehicles Act, would also be nullified. With inputs from Abhijit Mulye in Mumbai & Harpreet Bajwa in Chandigarh