COVID-19: States yet to reach peak, TPR records steady rise in all except Telangana, Delhi

Significantly, Maharashtra and three southern states - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu recorded a spike in TPR and others have seen moderate rise. 
A health worker collects samples for COVID-19 rapid antigen testing in New Delhi Saturday July 18 2020. (Photo | PTI)
A health worker collects samples for COVID-19 rapid antigen testing in New Delhi Saturday July 18 2020. (Photo | PTI)

NEW DELHI: Among the top 10 states with large numbers of Covid-19 cases, all excluding Telangana and Delhi have seen a steady rise in the test positivity rate (TPR) during the last one month.

A close look into TPR during the period of June 15-July 15 has disclosed that Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bengal and Gujarat witnessed rise in TPR. 

Significantly, Maharashtra and three southern states - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu recorded a spike in TPR and others have seen moderate rise. 

While India has seen a steady rise in cases with hardly any sign of let up, analysis of TPR data says that these states need to ramp up the testing further.

Moreover, it also gives a hint that these states are yet to reach its peak and the number of positive cases is likely to rise further.

TPR is a measure of the quantity of testing. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), a high TPR indicates poor testing and it should remain below 5 per cent.

A lower TPR suggests good testing and low chances of community spread.

Maharashtra recorded a sharp rise in TPR from 16.5 to 19.69 in last one month.

It recorded the highest number of cases and also has the highest positivity rate. However, the state has not increased the testing despite the high TPR as it is testing nearly 37,000 samples daily.Similarly, among the three southern states, Karnataka recorded a sharp rise in the TPR as it went up from 1.61 to 5.24.

It has seen a sudden spike in positive cases with total cases crossing the 55,000 mark.

It has also ramped up its testing as it went up nearly four fold from about 7,000 daily tests to nearly 25,000 during the last one month.

Tamil Nadu has also seen a significant rise in TPR as it went up from 6.38 to 8.93. The state has the second highest number (nearly 1.6 lakh) positive cases and is testing over 40,000 samples daily.

Andhra Pradesh has seen a significant rise in TPR from 1.14 to 2.95 with the number of positive cases rising and crossing 40,000 mark.

It is testing nearly 22,000 samples daily as against nearly 15,000 a month ago.

Analysis of the data has also suggested that most states were slow in increasing the number of testing despite the sharp rise in positive cases.

Ramped up testing help in breaking the chain by detecting the carriers and Delhi is a good example. Delhi’s TPR had reached 16.45 on June 30.

It scaled up testing after Center’s intervention from 6,500 a day (till mid-June) to 20,000 a day by July 15. As a result, the TPR has shown a downward trend coming down to 15.91. Centre has advised other states to follow the Delhi model.

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