World
- At a time when Ukraine has not only attacked and taken over 1000 sq kms of Russian territory and sent over 40 drones into Moscow and neighbouring areas- outflanking President Putin’s military in Kursk and exposing its weak underbelly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a landmark visit to Ukraine’s strongest ally Poland. And then headed to Kyiv.
- Why is PM Modi undertaking a visit to Ukraine at this critical moment in the Ukraine-Russia war. A wartime visit. Wartime diplomacy?
- The military reverses suffered by Russia have set off questions on whether Russian President Putin is losing the advantage. That it’s no longer a military stalemate in this two-and-a-half year running war as European powers like the UK and Germany beef up Ukraine’s military. But for how much longer?
- Moscow has categorically rejected any moves to talk peace. More so after losing Kursk, losing territory for the first time do me the Second World War.
- Does this newly armed Ukraine have the ability to retain Russian territory while simultaneously facing down Russia in the east. In Donetsk. And Progvorsok.
- The war maybe far away from India shores, territorially, but geopolitically, it affects one of India’s staunchest allies. Is the visit driven by India’s concerns that its strategic interests are at risk, particularly as a weakened Russia grows more dependent on China and can no longer hold China back from dominating the ‘Asia Pacific’. Or hold China back on India? Is that why we are reassuring our European allies, and even reaching out to Moscow’s arch enemy, Warsaw?
- Can Modi - despite Ukraine Presidents Vlodomyr Zelenskyy’s jibe over the ‘bear hug’ - shrug off the criticism, shift gears and play mediator, or if not that, a facilitator. As many believe, the US and UK want.
- It’s the first visit to Poland by an Indian Prime Minister in over 45 years. Certainly, the first to Ukraine, where he interacts with a Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy – who made no bones about his unhappiness at our Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow and his ‘bear hug’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 8. Just as Moscow levelled a children’s hospital in Kyiv and a NATO summit was all set to convene.
- The Prime Minister’s meetings in Warsaw followed the script – centred around defence and “strategic alignment”, building bridges with an emerging U.S. ally.
- But together with the trip to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, it has set off many questions, begging for an answer.
- Is this an independent initiative by Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
- Or is it at the quiet behest of London? And the US?
- Is this an attempt at a course correction? A signal that India values ties with the West too, after the searing criticism of his trip to Moscow?
- BUT how will that impact ties with a crucial, longstanding much needed ally like Russia?
- And can Prime Minister Modi realistically, take on the role of “Peacemaker”? Qatar has tried. AND failed. So have the Turks! The Switzerland meet saw India refuse to condemn Russia. And China, playing the peace card, is milking the war for everything it can.
- WHY WOULD DELHI succeed where the others have failed? ESPECIALLY AFTER the Russians – after the recent shocking lightning strike by Ukraine into Russian territory in Kursk, raining drones on Moscow - have said NO to Peace talks“. Not until Ukraine is defeated” said Medvedev, DEPUTY HEAD of Russia’s Security Council.
- Talking to us today are Military expert Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, currently a Distinguished Fellow at the USI of India. Commissioned in 1981 into the 18 Cavalry, he held various important command and Staff appointments including command of an Armoured Division. He’s served in a UN Peace keeping mission as a military observer in Iraq and Kuwait between the two Gulf Wars, tenures at the Military Academy in Dehra Dun and in Staff College Wellington, and is a prolific writer.
- Russia experts Dr Gulshan Sachdeva , JNU Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Co-ordinator Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
- Manoj Kewalramani, Takshashila institution. Chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at Takshashila Institution. Senior Associate Freeman Chair in China Studies, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (U.S.), and alumnus of the U.S. Department of State's International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP).