World
As Russia punishes Kyiv for its lightning grab of over 1,000 kms in Kursk, raining a barrage of missiles for the fourth day running, and now probably shooting down an F-16, Moscow seems determined to demonstrate that its powerful military has not taken a beating from this parvenu. And that the West, particularly Washington, despite the Kursk reverses, does not have the upper hand as its proxy Ukraine claims.
The stepped up military offensives must be seen for what they are – both sides setting the stage for a Peace Summit in October before the U.S presidential polls in November presages a change in Washington’s policy towards Europe. Russia, playing hard to get, insisting that Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan is unacceptable, no framework for peace talks.
Ukraine’s military surge – including flying F-16s that its rookie pilots are unfamiliar with – is part of a larger Washington strategy to diminish Russia’s writ over its former satellite states and isolate and possibly dislodge strongman President Vladimir Putin. But it’s the peace offensive and India’s emerging role that is intriguing.
The telephone call that US President Joe Biden made to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russian President Vladimir Putin dialling Modi after his Kyiv visit. Putin, predictably dissed Ukraine’s peace summit call while inviting Modi to the BRICS summit in Kazan. What Moscow left unsaid was that it would not countenance any move by India to stray too far out of its sphere of influence, and water down its newfound ‘unipolarity’, its ‘strategic autonomy’.
The U.S. game plan for India as spelt out during numerous conversations between the two sides both before and after Modi’s visit to Moscow for the India-Russia summit is to use India to reach some kind of understanding with Russia. Russia’s sole remaining ally, China has scoffed at India’s “Yoga Diplomacy”. And with good reason. Much as it brokered peace in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it’s attempting to do the same in Europe, inviting the Ukrainian foreign minister to Beijing, hosting the U.S. top-ranking National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to China, ostensibly to set up a Biden-Xi connect.
The US may be attempting the ultimate feint. Befriend China, but ensure it doesn’t call the shots in Europe. Isolate a diminished Russia, a diminished Putin. Whittle away at India’s dependence on Russia, while using India’s good offices to bring Delhi into the game as Washington’s proxy chief interlocutor, hoping that war fatigue after three years of war could see hostilities end.
As for the Gaza war in the Middle East – that India has stayed out of while quietly batting for Israel– seemed on the brink of a pause after Cairo and Doha had persuaded Israel to a prisoner-hostage swap and a four-day truce, until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strikes on ‘radical Islamists’ in Jenin and Tulkaram in the Occupied West Bank and right-wing leader Ben Gvir issued fresh threats to build a synagogue in Islam’s third holiest site, the Haram al-Sharif, threw a spanner in the peace works.
Right now, neither of the two wars show signs of a pause. Even if Vishwaguru reinvented, does his magic at the BRICS summit in Kazan in October and persuades the seemingly all-powerful Putin to hear out his hated rival for a ‘Victory Peace Plan’ at the UN in September. A stepped-up war as hostilities spike in the run-up to the U.S. polls? Backroom negotiations? Yes. But equally unthinkable...peace?
Talking to Neena Gopal today are two individuals who live, eat and breathe conflict resolution - Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, Former Ambassador of India to Jordan, Libya, and Malta, served in Bangladesh, Russia and the US. And Sanjay Kapoor, the Founder and Editor of Hard News Magazine, a political monthly and foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbourhood, and West Asia.