Romney's VP pick likely to go to safest candidate

Romney's VP pick likely to go to safest candidate

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney promises toname his vice presidential running mate before the party convention in lateAugust, and the betting is the risk-averse candidate will pick the safestpossible candidate — certainly no one like Sarah Palin who was pulled fromobscurity four years ago by John McCain.
With little expected to happen in the White House race between now and theconvention, observers have turned to speculating about who Romney will choose,watching every move the various possible candidates make during the summercampaigning. It's a bit like the Kremlinology the world engaged in back in thedays of the Soviet Union.
Many political experts are predicting Romney will turn to Ohio Sen. RobPortman, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, all prominentRepublican figures, each a tantalizing pick for different reasons.
There recently was buzz surrounding Condoleezza Rice, who served as formerPresident George W. Bush's secretary of state. She has said, however, that shewas happy in her return to academia.
While some believe that the vice presidential candidate will make no differenceto voters when they cast ballots in November to choose between Romney andObama, others believe the choice can fill in geographic or ideological gaps forRomney, suggesting the wealthy northeasterner might opt for a conservativesoutherner or someone from the Midwest.
But no one knows except Romney and his closest advisers. The candidate has onlysaid he will make the announcement before the Republican national convention inlate August.
Whoever is picked, Romney will most likely choose a candidate who will notproduce an uproar among all-important middle of the road voters.
With both presidential candidates locked in one of the closest races in historyand the nation gripped in a deep partisan divide, so-called swing voters, thosein the middle of the political spectrum, will play an oversized role.
"While Romney still needs to pull things together with some of the mostconservative Republicans, his choice can't be attached to the most extremeright wing of the party or he will chance losing the moderates," saidRobin Lauermann, a political scientist at Messiah College.
If there is a chink in the Romney armor among fellow Republicans it is hishistory of having been too moderate when he was Massachusetts governor. Thatwas the reason he faced such a major battle in eliminating fellow Republicanswho were challenging him for the nomination. Deep conservatives like formerHouse Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum tookmonths to vanquish in the primary contest.
Until shifting his stance, Romney backed abortion rights. He took a moderatestance on the right of gays to marry and, most important, he instituted areform of the Massachusetts health care system that became the model for theone Obama pushed through Congress in 2010.
Now Romney is anti-abortion, vague on gay marriage and promises to repeal thenational health care overhaul.
"He has to choose someone to the right of him," said Harry Wilson,professor of public affairs at Roanoke College. "He's got to do somethingto help get the right wing energized."
The list of men and women who might fill the bill is extensive.
Perhaps the best odds are placed on Portman. He serves as Romney's campaignchairman in Ohio, was a longtime congressman there and served as a traderepresentative and top budget official in the George W. Bush administration.
Portman is safe, has Washington experience and is from Ohio. No Republican hasever won the White House without carrying that state. Obama won Ohio in 2008and the state is one of the most important battlegrounds this time around.
Also at the top of the most-speculated about candidates are Rubio and Jindal.Both men are young, age 41, and beloved among conservatives nationally. Bothare minorities. Rubio is Hispanic; Jindal is Indian American. Either would helpslice away the Republican stereotype of being the party of older white men.
New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte would fill that need as well, and she, likeRubio and Portman, hails from a swing state — the dozen or so that cannot berelied upon to vote either Republican or Democrat in a presidential contest.The president is chosen, not according to the national popular vote, but instate by state contests. All but about a dozen U.S. states are already seen aslocked in either for Obama or Romney.
Another swing-state possibility is Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is popularthere and brings a good record on the economy and job creation — the centraltheme of the Romney campaign.
Then there is Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, who gets along withRomney personally and has been a willing voice for his campaign since droppingout of the primary contest last summer.
The most controversial possibility may be New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. He isamong the most popular Republican politicians. His no-nonsense, tough-talkingpersona is a good compliment to the more reserved Romney and a strong contrastwith the loftier rhetoric of Obama. Christie's attraction to the limelight,however, would be an awkward fit for the vice presidency and has only held amajor elected office for three years.
On down the list is Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, who has emerged as the tax policyexpert in the Republican party. His budget proposals have drawn wide praisefrom Republicans intent on cutting the national deficit, and he is widely castas the Republican foil to Obama, articulating an alternative vision of how thefederal government could work. He too is from a swing state.
His biggest drawback is the stringent spending cuts he recommends, including afundamental restructuring of Medicare, the vastly popular national healthinsurance program for Americans age 65 and older. That could alienate thenatural Republican base among older voters.
Then there is the candidate who may be most likely to emerge at Romney's side:none of the above. It's all guesswork after all and surprise can be the spicethe enlivens an already tight race. But given Romney's aversion to risk, it iscertain he will not turn to a Palin-like running mate.
She was the choice of McCain when he knew he had to do something dramatic toovercome Obama. The little-known and poorly vetted former Alaska governorturned out to hurt McCain more than she helped.
"In McCain's case it was the last play of the game, and he had to try toshake things up," Wilson said. "That's not Romney's reality."

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