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Covid has killed about as many Americans as the 1918-19 Spanish flu: Data

The US population a century ago was just one-third of what it is today, meaning the flu cut a much bigger, more lethal swath through the country.

Published: 21st September 2021 04:30 PM  |   Last Updated: 21st September 2021 04:30 PM   |  A+A-

Representational image of Coronavirus.

Representational Image. (File Photo)

By PTI

WASHINGTON: COVID-19 has now killed about as many Americans as the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic did, approximately 675,000.

The US population a century ago was just one-third of what it is today, meaning the flu cut a much bigger, more lethal swath through the country.

But the COVID-19 crisis is by any measure a colossal tragedy in its own right, especially given the incredible advances in scientific knowledge since then and the failure to take maximum advantage of the vaccines available this time.

"Big pockets of American society, and, worse, their leaders, have thrown this away," medical historian Dr.

Howard Markel of the University of Michigan said of the opportunity to vaccinate everyone eligible by now.

Like the Spanish flu, the coronavirus may never entirely disappear from our midst.

Instead, scientists hope it becomes a mild seasonal bug as human immunity strengthens through vaccination and repeated infection.

That could take time.

"We hope it will be like getting a cold, but there's no guarantee," said Emory University biologist Rustom Antia, who suggests an optimistic scenario in which this could happen over a few years.

For now, the pandemic still has the United States and other parts of the world firmly in its jaws.

While the delta-fuelled surge in infections may have peaked, U.S. deaths are running at over 1,900 a day on average, the highest level since early March, and the country's overall toll topped 675,000 Monday, according to the count kept by Johns Hopkins University, though the real number is believed to be higher.

Winter may bring a new surge, with the University of Washington's influential model projecting an additional 100,000 or so Americans will die of COVID-19 by Jan.1, which would bring the overall US toll to 776,000.

The 1918-19 influenza pandemic killed 50 million victims globally at a time when the world had one-quarter the population it does now.

Global deaths from COVID-19 now stand at more than 4.6 million.

The Spanish flu's US death toll is a rough guess, given the incomplete records of the era and the poor scientific understanding of what caused the illness.

The 675,000 figure comes from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The ebbing of COVID-19 could happen if the virus progressively weakens as it mutates and more and more humans' immune systems learn to attack it.

Vaccination and surviving infection are the main ways the immune system improves.

Breast-fed infants also gain some immunity from their mothers.

Under that optimistic scenario, schoolchildren would get mild illness that trains their immune systems.

As they grow up, the children would carry the immune response memory, so that when they are old and vulnerable, the coronavirus would be no more dangerous than cold viruses.

The same goes for today's vaccinated teens: Their immune systems would get stronger through the shots and mild infections.

"We will all get infected," Antia predicted.

"What's important is whether the infections are severe." Something similar happened with the H1N1 flu virus, the culprit in the 1918-19 pandemic.

It encountered too many people who were immune, and it also eventually weakened through mutation.

H1N1 still circulates today, but immunity acquired through infection and vaccination has triumphed.

Getting an annual flu shot now protects against H1N1 and several other strains of flu.

To be sure, flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 Americans each year, but on average, it is a seasonal problem and a manageable one.

Before COVID-19, the 1918-19 flu was universally considered the worst pandemic disease in human history.

Whether the current scourge ultimately proves deadlier is unclear.

In many ways, the 1918-19 flu, which was wrongly named Spanish flu because it first received widespread news coverage in Spain, was worse.

Spread by the mobility of World War I, it killed young, healthy adults in vast numbers.

No vaccine existed to slow it, and there were no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections.

And, of course, the world was much smaller.

Yet jet travel and mass migrations threaten to increase the toll of the current pandemic.

Much of the world is unvaccinated.

And the coronavirus has been full of surprises.

Markel said he is continually astounded by the magnitude of the disruption the pandemic has brought to the planet.

"I was gobsmacked by the size of the quarantines" the Chinese government undertook initially, Markel said, "and I've since been gob-gob-gob-smacked to the nth degree."

The lagging pace of US vaccinations is the latest source of his astonishment.

Just under 64% of the US population has received as least one dose of the vaccine, with state rates ranging from a high of approximately 77% in Vermont and Massachusetts to lows around 46% to 49% in Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia and Mississippi.

Globally, about 43% of the population has received at least one dose, according to Our World in Data, with some African countries just beginning to give their first shots.

"We know that all pandemics come to an end," said Dr. Jeremy Brown, director of emergency care research at the National Institutes of Health, who wrote a book on influenza.

"They can do terrible things while they're raging."

COVID-19 could have been far less lethal in the US if more people had gotten vaccinated faster, "and we still have an opportunity to turn it around," Brown said.

"We often lose sight of how lucky we are to take these things for granted."

The current vaccines work extremely well in preventing severe disease and death from the variants of the virus that have emerged so far.

It will be crucial for scientists to make sure the ever-mutating virus hasn't changed enough to evade vaccines or to cause severe illness in unvaccinated children, Antia said.

New York City will begin conducting weekly, random COVID-19 tests of unvaccinated students in the nation's largest school district in an attempt to more quickly spot outbreaks in classrooms.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio made the announcement Monday, a day after the city's teachers' union sent de Blasio a letter calling for weekly testing instead of biweekly testing in the district with about a million students.

The mayor also announced also a change in quarantine rules for schools, no longer requiring unvaccinated students to quarantine at home if they were masked and at least 3 feet away from someone who tested positive for the coronavirus.

De Blasio said the changes followed US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines and would keep students from missing vital classroom time.

The changes come after the first full week of the school year in which nearly 900 classrooms, including those in charter schools, were fully or partially closed in the city's 1,876 schools because of reports positive COVID-19 cases.

One school entirely closed for 10 days after a cluster of cases.

The new rules take effect on September 27.

That day is also the deadline for the city's public school teachers and staff to get at least their first shot of the COVID-19 vaccine under a city-wide schools mandate.

The city's mandate that teachers and staff get vaccinated is relatively rare in the US.

Other states and districts have imposed rules requiring vaccines or weekly tests for the virus.

Unlike other school districts, New York City is not offering any remote instruction this school year, despite concerns about the highly contagious delta variant's ability to spread.

De Blasio has said children need to be back in school for their mental and physical health and social development.

New York is also requiring vaccinations for student-athletes and coaches in "high risk" sports like football, basketball and wrestling.

De Blasio said Monday that he's not yet considering a broader vaccine requirement for all eligible students, despite Pfizer's announcement Monday that its COVID-19 vaccine works for children ages 5 to 11 and that it will seek US authorisation for that age group.

"The goal is to get our kids in school for the foreseeable future. The best way to do that is to welcome all kids while constantly working to improve the levels of vaccination," he said.

"I do not want to see kids excluded. I want to invite kids in and then constantly work to get them vaccinated."



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