NEW DELHI: The political and economic turbulence in India’s neighbourhood especially in Sri Lanka and Pakistan has emerged as a big cause of concern for the Indian diplomatic establishment.
It is learnt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi gets regular updates of the developments in the neighbourhood from External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
Sri Lanka has been reeling under a severe economic and political crisis. India, being its closest neighbour, has come to its aid by providing a Line of Credit worth $2.5 billion to help them purchase fuel, food and medicines.
However, the island nation is in dire need of a further $3 billion to enable them to buy essentials like fuel and food to keep them afloat. On the political front, Sri Lanka’s opposition party Samagi Jana Balawegaya has announced a no-confidence motion against the government led by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and is prepared to impeach him if he fails to address the concerns of the public.
Protesters have been demanding the resignation of the President and the entire Rajapaksa family from the government. Some protesters have been seen holding placards asking India to help them and not the government. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, during his visit to Sri Lanka last month, had tweeted that as part of the Neighbourhood First Policy they would continue to extend support to the island nation.
As a result of the economic and political crisis, there has been a slow influx of refugees from Sri Lanka to Tamil Nadu. India already hosts around 100,000 Sri Lankan Tamils.
Experts point out that the political conditions in Sri Lanka could have an impact on the India-Maldives-Sri Lanka trilateral security dialogue and could delay other initiatives taken by India under the Indian Ocean Rim Association.
The only recent takeaway from Sri Lanka for India has been development of three wind farms that were originally given to a Chinese firm. An MoU was signed by Jaishankar during his visit to Colombo last month. The $ 12 million project is
for building wind farms on three islands (Nainativu, Analaitivu and Delft) located in the Palk Strait.
Meanwhile, since Pakistan is reeling under a constitutional crisis, there is some peace on the Indo-Pak border. Diplomatic ties between the two nations have been downgraded at present. It is for the same reason that India took long to convince Pakistan to let them transport 50,000 tonnes of wheat as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
The vote on the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan is expected soon after which he will have to step down officially as the PM of Pakistan. One of the front runners as the next PM of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif is being viewed as someone who is likely to have a more constructive bilateral relationship with India.
As regards Afghanistan, even though India’s hasn’t recognised the Taliban regime, they have been sending humanitarian aid to them. There are talks of reopening the Indian Embassy in Kabul.
On the Eastern border, there is an issue of influx of refugees from Myanmar which is facing atrocities by the military junta.
Maldives too is witnessing a surge in the ‘India Out’ campaign promoted by ex-President Abdulla Yameen as he plans to make a comeback in politics. Regarding China, there is a diplomatic standoff. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India didn’t make any progress towards the resolution of the LAC military build-up.
India will continue to focus on its Neighbourhood First Policy and do all it can to bring about stability and prove itself as a reliable economic and development partner.