NEW DELHI: When five states go to the polls between Feb 4 and March 8, it would be more than just a vote for a clutch of provincial governments. A whole range of cross-state, even national, themes and factors will be at play this spring. The recent Supreme Court ruling on secularism, the second season verdict on demonetisation and the delicate balance of regional and national forces and what they represent, are all at stake.
In addition to this, in the biggest state of them all, Uttar Pradesh, the intense flux the political equations were thrown into, has got a narrow time frame to resolve or reform itself -- the ruling Samajwadi Party’s future shape may even have a bearing going forward to 2019. If Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and patriarch Mulayam Singh come together in an acceptable arrangement, the contest will stay largely triangular. Or if it is an uneasy truce, malcontents like Shivpal Yadav will have seven long phases -- ranging from Feb to March 8 -- within which to subvert SP’s chances.
In the event of an outright split, it becomes a highly unpredictable four-cornered contest with BJP handed a distinct advantage. The Congress as a minor fourth player could also be a factor if it can manage a tie -up with the Akhilesh-faction of the SP, along with Ajit Singh’s Jat-belt party RLD. Had it not been the size of the Assembly, all of 403 seats, with larger implications, UP could have been a straight contest between two regional forces, Akhilesh and Mayawati, with the BSP chief trying to make a comeback.
But much is at stake for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well. Not because it’s a prestige fight. The PM represents Varanasi in UP. A win in the largest State could make the next round of Assembly battles, like Gujarat, and 2019 easier. It would also have a direct bearing on the presidential polls scheduled later this year. Not to mention how an unsatisfactory tally in any of the five Assemblies, particularly UP, would also be read as a negative popular verdict on demonetisation.
The impact of that policy move can already be felt on the poll process, with cash being in short supply. Not more than `20,000 can be spent in cash by candidates, Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi ordained on Wednesday, while announcing the poll dates. These wider factors are why this poll season is being spoken of as a referendum on the Modi Government’s popularity. As for the GOP, the real stakes are in Punjab (polling on Feb 4) , Uttarakhand (Feb 15) and Manipur (March 4 and 8) and Goa (Feb 4), in that order. In Punjab, the Congress is not only fighting the ruling Akali-BJP combine, but also a desperate Arvind Kejriwal.