He was the ‘average Joe’. A ‘Made in Andhra’ student who stole the hearts of an entire generation in Andhra Pradesh at the turn of the century. Two decades on since he took Tollywood by storm playing these memorable characters, Pawan Kalyan is attempting something similar to set a new ‘trend’ in State politics. Will Thammudu walk away with the trophy? Will he be a spoiler? Who will he hurt most? Incumbent Chief Minister and TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu or YSRC chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy? These are million dollar questions, answers to which vary depending on which camp one is in.
Elections-2019 marks Pawan’s electoral debut though he had been in and out of politics for nearly a decade. He first burst onto the scene in 2009 when his eldest brother and megastar Chiranjeevi floated Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). His high-octane speeches notwithstanding, the PRP did not live up to the hype and ended up with just 18 seats in the then 294-member Assembly of the United Andhra Pradesh.
With Chiranjeevi later merging the party with the Congress, Pawan faded away from the scene only to re-emerge in 2014. This time, by launching his own party, Jana Sena, a couple of months ahead of the general elections. He extended his support to the BJP-TDP combine but did not enter the poll fray. His support proved critical for Naidu to beat Jagan by a whisker.
Fast forward to 2019. Pawan is himself in the fray, allied with the Left and BSP. Backed by the numerically strong Kapu community, which accounts for a little over 20% of the State population and to which he belongs, he hopes to do what his brother couldn’t. He is only the second popular leader from the community to emerge in three decades since the assassination of Vangaveeti Mohana Ranga in 1988. The other being his brother.
Leaning left, Pawan has tried assiduously in the last few months to distance himself from the tag of a community leader. Embracing the Reli caste — an SC community — and making it clear in his nomination papers that caste doesn’t apply to him, he has given a clarion call to his fans, most of them youngsters aged anywhere between 15-35, to help him ‘revolutionise’ politics, promising a clean government. However, it is universally acknowledged that his fortunes depend on how much backing he gets from the Kapu community. And on his performance depend the fortunes of Naidu and Jagan. In 2014, his support base voted for the TDP.
A senior TDP leader reasons, “He will hurt Jagan the most. Compared to last time, TDP will get more SC and minority votes. Since Pawan has tied up with Mayawati, it will have an impact on Dalits. They will get at least 25 percent of Dalit votes. SCs and minorities voted overwhelmingly for Jagan last time. Now, it is going to be different.”
He also opines that even among the Kapu community, only those aged below 35 may vote for Pawan. “The elders are yet to recover from the Chiranjeevi shock,” he says, pointing at the disillusionment that set in among the Kapu community after Chiru merged PRP with the Congress in 2012.His prediction: Jana Sena may get maximum of 7 seats in the twin Godavari districts – home to a substantial population of Kapus. His prophesy on Pawan himself is more dire. “Gajuwaka? No Gaju, no waka. He will lose Bhimavaram too. He is not greater than his brother,” he says, pointing out that the party has no structure. It is not organised.
The TDP leader’s predictions are skewed in favour of his party for obvious reasons but he does have a point. Jana Sena has no structure in place — something that is crucial for poll campaign and management. YSRC leaders too do not seem to be overly worried about Pawan eating into their votes. Party chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy believes Pawan will eat into the TDP vote-share. His reasoning: Pawan was with TDP the last time.
Whatever votes he commands were passed on to the TDP due to the alliance. This time, he may get the same votes for his Jana Sena, which means the TDP will lose votes to that extent. The anti-incumbency votes against the TDP will accrue to the YSRC, whose vote-share remains intact.
The view from within Jana Sena is optimistic. A close aide of Pawan told TNIE that they had fielded 60-70 ‘good candidates.’ Of them, Pawan himself is banking on 30-32 — if he gets them, he could well be the kingmaker or even the king himself. In the twin Godavari districts, which together account for 34 Assembly seats, the Jana Sena has fielded 16 from the Kapu community. The TDP had swept the two districts in 2014, due in some measure to Pawan. It won 14 of the 15 in West Godavari, the other seat went to its ally BJP. In East Godavari, it won 12 of the 19 with the BJP winning one and YSRC bagging five.
To be fair to Pawan, he has given tickets to many new faces — 136 in fact. Of them, 60 are aged below 45. Sources in Jana Sena admit that the party has no structure in place for carrying on a sustained campaign or poll management on the D-day. “We are banking on the spontaneous support being shown by the youth. We believe Pawan has wide appeal and could get votes without the traditional means employed by other parties,” they say.
If lack of proper party machine is its Achilles heel, the accusations from YSRC that Jana Sena has a tacit understanding with the TDP have been plaguing it ever since the poll campaign began. Pawan has focused his attacks more on Jagan than Naidu and much like Naidu, he has accused the TRS of colluding with the YSRC and threatening Andhra leaders. Besides, his remarks that Andhras are being targeted in Telangana have drawn some flak. How far his strategy will pay off remains to be seen.
The TDP and the YSRC may write him off, but both agree on one thing — Pawan will make a difference. To whose fortunes? As said earlier, the answers depend, for now, on which camp one is in.
Pawan’s strengths
1) Appeal among youth
2) No stain of corruption
3) Seen as far more sincere than his brotherWeaknesses
1) Seen as consistently inconsistent
2) No well-oiled party machinery
3) Absence of experienced hands
4) No money bags