There is growing impatience to return to ‘normalcy’; yet the galloping pandemic has kept people in India and elsewhere locked up at home, and the economy in a deep freeze. With the government beginning the rollback of curfew measures from April 20, the search is on for the balancing point: how do we keep isolation measures in place to flatten the curve of infection and death without pushing the economy to the brink? It is now accepted that a lockdown is not the cure for COVID-19; at best, it is to arrest the spread of the infection so that the healthcare system has a fighting chance to treat the flow of patients. The final answer, a vaccine, is still a year or more from commercial distribution.
It is obvious there can’t be indefinite or permanent lockdowns. Says Dr Stephen Phillips, a US-based medical epidemiologist: “No country can afford an indefinite precautionary principle based on the strategy of avoidance of all risks. The economic, social and psychological consequences are too destructive and dire.
Meanwhile, the social and economic costs are mounting. A Barclays Research analysis estimates the cost of the lockdown in India at $26 billion a week, and the total meltdown after the economy was put on hold at $234 billion – equivalent to 8.1 per cent of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), assuming that curfew curbs would be withdrawn by June. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed India’s growth estimate for FY2021 to 1.9 per cent from 5.8 per cent estimated in January, warning the world of the “worst recession since the Great Depression”.
Returning to ‘normal’
Given the need to balance risk with economic necessity, how do we go about ‘returning to normal’, if there can be such a state at all? There have been different approaches to lockdowns and how it should be eased. The Netherlands has taken an extreme view: no lockdown. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said his country aimed to develop an ‘immunity’ to the novel coronavirus among its population by allowing large numbers to contract the illness at a controlled pace The twin approach is ‘controlling’ the virus through natural, human anti-bodies, and simultaneously protecting vulnerable groups like the elderly.
By this route, when the society returned to normal, it would not be exposed to the danger of new outbreaks, after having reached a level of ‘herd immunity’. Critics say the Dutch have paid a high price with over 3,000 deaths and more than 20,000 infected; at a fairly high rate of 193 deaths per million, compared to say Germany, which is reporting 42 deaths per million. But the number of deaths and new cases has been declining noticeably in the last few days.
Among the locked down nations, Austria is being watched carefully as it is among the first to experiment with opening up this week. Stores of less than 4,300 square feet can reopen so long as they limit the number of people inside, to maintain distancing. Face masks are mandatory in public spaces. If there’s no pickup in infections, all other stores can reopen on May 2. Schools and restaurants will open from the middle of May.
At the other end of the spectrum is the push by Donald Trump “To Open Up America Again” in three phases. This is despite the huge spike in deaths now notching over 3,000 a day and with infections close to 7,00,000. The plan, to be supervised by state governors, first envisages opening up large venues and restaurants with social distancing; followed by easing other restrictions including opening of bars. Governors of badly hit states like New York and Louisiana are aghast.
Finding a balance
For India, balancing the risk of a spreading pandemic with getting the economy started, is a different equation from the developed world. The pain of joblessness for large swathes of the population without savings or food support can lead to terrifying consequences.
A report by volunteer group Stranded Workers Action Network, who interviewed over 11,000 migrants across the country, reported 195 lockdown-related, non-COVID-19 deaths caused by suicides, hardships during the journey, etc. About 89 per cent of those interviewed had not been paid by their employers. The ability to hold out much longer for these sections has been exhausted.
There is a government policy to open the economy: ‘green’ districts, which have reported negligible coronavirus cases, will be allowed limited activity from April 20; however, the 170 ‘red zone’ districts and another 207 districts that have potential to deteriorate will remain shut for longer periods. This process of ‘opening up’ on a static criterion of the number of coronavirus cases found, sounds knee-jerk and unscientific. By this measure, Dehradun for instance, with merely 18 cases and no deaths still finds itself in the ‘red zone’ under lockdown for an indefinite period.
A more flexible method of extensive testing, contact-tracing and isolating affected clusters would be more effective. It would also allow largely unaffected areas to resume economic life speedily.