CHANDIGARH: Delhi's air quality could deteriorate further and enter the ‘Severe’ category over the next two to three days as unfavourable weather conditions, low wind speeds and smoke from stubble burning in India and Pakistan's Punjab region combine to trap pollutants over the national capital.
The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) invoked Stage II of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across Delhi-NCR on Monday after the city's air quality slipped into the ‘Very Poor’ category.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that north-westerly winds will continue over the north-western plains for the next four days. Falling temperatures and sluggish winds could prevent pollutants from dispersing, keeping them concentrated close to the ground and worsening air quality.
The pollution spike comes amid a sharp rise in agricultural fires across the border. Data from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System recorded 13,241 stubble-burning incidents in Pakistan's Punjab between October 1 and 29, compared with 3,158 in Indian Punjab, about 4.2 times higher.
The analysis found that 92 per cent of the fire detections in Pakistan were in agricultural fields and were likely associated with crop residue burning. The spike was particularly sharp around Lahore and adjoining areas during the last week of October, when the city's Air Quality Index (AQI) crossed 500.
Lahore recorded an AQI of 447 on Tuesday morning, making it one of the most polluted cities in the world as pre-winter smog blanketed the region. According to Swiss air quality monitoring group IQAir, its PM2.5 concentration was 60 times higher than the World Health Organization's annual exposure guideline.
North-westerly winds prevailing over the region could carry smoke from agricultural areas in Pakistan towards Punjab and Haryana and further to Delhi-NCR. Smoke from stubble burning in Indian Punjab and Haryana is also contributing to the pollution.
The Pakistan government has intensified action against brick kilns violating environmental regulations and continues to urge farmers not to burn crop residue after harvesting.
Even as the number of farm fires recorded in India remains relatively low compared with previous years, Punjab has reported 1,612 farm fire incidents as of November 2, with 77.38 per cent of its total paddy area harvested, according to the latest CAQM report. Tarn Taran topped the list with 489 incidents, followed by Ferozepur (193) and Amritsar (192). The farm fire count stood at 1,047 on October 30.
Although the cumulative number of incidents remains lower than the 2,262 recorded during the corresponding period last year, officials fear the situation could worsen as harvesting reaches its peak. By this time last year, 85 per cent of the paddy crop had been harvested, compared with 77 per cent this year.
Officials fear a rise in incidents as the November 15 deadline for the ideal wheat-sowing window approaches, potentially prompting farmers to burn stubble to clear their fields and prepare the land for the next crop.
According to data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (ICAR-IARI), 219 residue-burning events were recorded on Monday, taking the seasonal total since September 15 to 3,535. Punjab accounted for 1,612 fires, followed by Rajasthan (738), Madhya Pradesh (614), Uttar Pradesh (349), Uttarakhand (176), Haryana (44) and Delhi (2). This is an all-time low for Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
The next few days could bring further pressure on air quality. Unseasonal rains in October, linked to Cyclone Arnab, had delayed harvesting for many farmers. With harvesting now progressing rapidly, stubble-burning incidents could increase.
With Diwali approaching over the weekend, additional smoke from firecrackers could further worsen the already fragile situation.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has forecast that Delhi's air quality will remain in the ‘Very Poor’ category until November 5, with the outlook for the subsequent six days ranging from ‘Very Poor’ to ‘Poor’.
