THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Congress poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu has projected a 80 plus seat victory for the UDF in the assembly elections, based on an internal assessment submitted to the party high command.
The report attributes the UDF prospects to two distinct strands of anti-incumbency sentiments - one, a statewide anti -incumbency sentiment against the LDF government, and a more targeted sentiment against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. According to the finding, UDF has performed well above expectation in five districts across Malabar and Central Kerala - Malappuram, Kozhikode, Ernakulam, Idukki, and Pathanamthitta.
However, the report flags concerns over winning prospects in districts such as Thrissur, Alappuzha and Thiruvananthapuram. “Though we expected to perform very well in these districts, there are now some apprehensions about the outcome,” said a senior Congress leader.
The assessment also points to a consolidation of minority votes - both Christian and Muslim - in favour of the UDF, especially in Malabar and Central Kerala. In contrast, the anticipated consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the LDF did not materialise.
It further stated that while the LDF banked on the performance of its sitting MLAs, the prevailing anti- incumbency sentiment among the public along with the broader anti-government and CPM-related factors, appear to have outweighed these advantages.