A full-blown controversy erupted after the contents of the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill and Delimitation Bill to be taken up in Parliament from April 16 became public. Though they represent a landmark gender justice initiative to enhance women’s participation in Assemblies and Parliament, a close reading of the drafts shows delimitation is the umbilical for operationalising the 33 percent quota for women. Articles 82 and 170 of the Constitution mandate delimitation to redraw constituency boundaries after every Census so that each representative in the legislature speaks for roughly the same population size. That imperative would be shelved through an amendment that delinks delimitation from the ongoing 2026 Census. Also, the population for seat allocation is sought to be shifted from the 1971 data to whichever Census “Parliament may by law determine”. The stated intention of the entire exercise is to enhance seats in the Lok Sabha from the present 543 to 850, thus carving out 281 seats exclusively for women.
Delimitation was in deep freeze for decades due to population imbalance—stabilised in the South, but not in the North. That genie is about to re-emerge, as one of the proposed amendments allows delimitation based on the latest available Census, which for now is the 2011 one. It goes against the executive’s earlier assurance of proportional increase of seats for all states whenever delimitation kicks in. Analysts reckon that the 2011 benchmark would translate into a drastic reduction of proportional seats in the South, with Tamil Nadu being the biggest loser as its post-delimitation representation in the Lok Sabha would climb from 39 to merely 50, not 61 seats if the present percentage was maintained—a net loss of 11. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh would be the biggest gainer, from 80 to 138—with 13 more through the 2011 benchmark.
Constitutional amendments require a special majority for passage in each House—by a simple majority of the total membership and at least two-thirds of those present and voting. Since the present strength of the Lok Sabha is 540, at least 360 members will have to vote for the Bills if all are present, but the ruling NDA has only 293. In other words, the opposition will have to pitch in for the legislation to sail through.
Tamil Nadu has been the most vociferous against delimitation, with Chief Minister M K Stalin warning that the state would come to a standstill if the Bills pass. It’s up to the opposition to show it can stay united and fight it out in the Lok Sabha. Their resolve would be under test.