The BJP must have heaved a collective sigh of relief when it finally secured the chief minister’s seat in Bihar—the one Hindi heartland state that had eluded it for decades. Yet, two concerns persist. First, it remains only a senior partner in a coalition, holding barely four seats more than the JD(U) and falling much short of a majority. Second, Samrat Choudhary does not come from the core of the Sangh parivar; his career reflects multiple affiliations. Even so, this moment closes a long arc that began when Lalu Prasad Yadav ordered the arrest of L K Advani to halt the Rath Yatra in October 1990. Since then, the national party has relentlessly pursued power in the state.
Choudhary carries a heavy burden as he seeks to establish acceptance. Nitish Kumar’s long tenure overshadows him, and his actions will be closely scrutinised. As he settles into routine governance, he will have to engage the JD(U) with caution, given Nitish’s continued presence and the socialist lineage that connects his father, Shakuni Choudhary, to Nitish from the Samata Party years. At the same time, he will try to consolidate his standing among the Koeris (Kushwahas), a significant backward class after Yadavs and Kurmis, to which he belongs. He must also ensure that the NDA’s emphasis on law and order, in contrast to the opposition’s alleged ‘jungle raj’ record, does not weaken. If he reviews Nitish Kumar’s policies, particularly prohibition, he will need to proceed carefully, given the enduring support the policy secured among women. One advantage will remain unchanged: access to central resources under the double-engine arrangement.
Politically, the BJP may now seek to widen its reach in Bihar beyond caste alignments and mobilise support along its ideological framework. However, this is not easy as it must first establish itself as Bihar’s primary political force. Nitish Kumar’s personal appeal, his ability to retain a secular image across alignments, and the RJD’s hawkish efforts to question Choudhary’s past positions will keep both the government and its leader on their toes. In this setting, missteps will carry costs and incremental gains are more likely than dramatic shifts.