Carbon emissions, a principal factor for global warming, witnessed a rare decline in India last year. If emissions had fallen earlier, it was because of exceptional factors like the Covid pandemic. Though the 2025 fall is marginal, it is significant because it was driven by an early and strong monsoon along with a robust expansion of renewable energy generation. The above-normal monsoon reduced the demand for air-conditioning and agricultural pump sets, the two biggest drawers of power from the grid. Coal-based generation declined by 3 percent, adding to the happy story.
India added 50 GW of solar power capacity last year and wind power doubled to 6 GW. Though the increase in capacity is commendable, it is not fully reflected in actual supply. Renewables (including large hydro projects), which today make up over half of India’s total installed capacity, contribute only 20-22 percent of the power generated. This is not only because the solar and wind projects are weather-dependent, but a significant portion of the capacity is facing delays in grid connectivity due to transmission infrastructure bottlenecks and lack of power purchase agreements.
Other priorities are also muddying the overall picture. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air warns that while India’s energy emissions declined, those from industrial sectors such as steel and cement continued to rise sharply at about 7-10 percent in the first half of 2025. And by 2030-32, another 80-100 GW of coal-based power is likely to be added. Significantly, advanced nations who usually lecture developing ones on emissions, fared poorly. For the first time in three decades, emissions in developed economies grew 0.5 percent while they slowed to 0.3 percent in less developed ones.
We must appreciate that India has few options because it imports most of its energy needs—85 percent of its crude oil needs, 90 percent of liquefied petroleum gas and 20 percent of coal. The closure of the Hormuz Strait has played havoc with both prices and supply. Coal, which India has in greater abundance, is a short-term answer to the oil-and-gas shock we are facing. But it plays havoc with carbon emissions, which we are committed to reduce. There is no alternative but to ramp up the renewable capacity faster and put what we already have to better use.