Late last week, 19 out of the 20 hottest cities of the world were in India. Barring the northeast and the western Himalayan regions, the rest of the country is currently reeling under blistering conditions with temperatures hovering at 40-46°C. Summer vacation has been advanced in some eastern states, while school timings are being tweaked in some western and northern ones in anticipation of heat stress. Clearly, the country is in the middle of a staggering heat run which, if the climate models come true, will drag on as a mega El Niño builds up. The phenomenon, defined as the cascading effect of warming of ocean surfaces in the eastern and central Pacific, is created during April-June and get stronger during the October-February period. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, there is a 70 percent chance of El Niño developing mid-year, with a high possibility of remaining dominant for the rest of the year. This prediction is being closely watched by climate scientists as it would raise temperatures around the world. The last mega El Niño, experienced 149 years ago, is believed to have wiped out about 4 percent of the global population.
Adding to India’s worries on this count is the observation that heat is silently bleeding its key economic sectors. A joint study by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and World Meteorological Organization released last week revealed that extreme heat reduced India’s wheat yields by 9-34 percent in 2022. The impact was similar across the food basket—reducing even milk and egg production. If the current climate predictions hold, there will be significant challenges ahead since the India Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon. The West Asia crisis is adding to the farm sector’s woes by raising fertiliser prices and choking its supplies.
It’s not just agriculture, but the energy sector will have to be closely watched, too. With the mercury soaring, power demand hit a peak of 256.1 gigawatts last week. It would be prudent to remember the coal crisis that the post-pandemic energy demand surge coupled with a heat wave had led to in 2022. Heat waves can be potent enough to hit the nation’s food security along with its health and energy sectors. The central and state governments must be prepared well in advance.
