This Assembly election in West Bengal was unlike any other in the state’s history. Held soon after the contentious removal of more than 90 lakh voters through a special intensive revision of the electoral rolls, the state’s two-phase polling unfolded amid a heavily securitised atmosphere. As voters battled inclement weather on Wednesday to turn out across the 142 constituencies, over 2.3 lakh central police personnel and more than 100 armoured vehicles were deployed. The Election Commission’s shuffling of bureaucrats continued till the last moment, with two additional district magistrates reassigned on Tuesday. As allegations between central and state officials and political parties flew thick and fast, it was evident that trust between stakeholders was under strain.
History offers some context for why none of the other four Assemblies that went to polls through April witnessed comparable tension. Bengal’s 2021 Assembly election saw over 300 incidents of violence, resulting in at least 58 deaths. While far fewer violent incidents have been reported this year, concerns and sporadic controversies persisted. Following allegations of voting-machine tampering, the Election Commission ordered repolling in Falta, south of Kolkata, which had also drawn attention after an IPS officer, Ajay Pal Singh, was seen on camera in a confrontation with a ruling party candidate.
Polling in the other states that went to the polls alongside Bengal—Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam—was, by comparison, conducted with fewer visible frictions, notwithstanding their own political contests. The scale of contestation and mutual distrust seen in Bengal did not find a comparable echo. Puducherry, which also voted in a single phase, remained largely uneventful.
Much is at stake for the fourth-most populous state, West Bengal, which also has one of the largest shares of Muslims and Dalits among the major states. The BJP, aiming to cross 40 percent vote share for the first time in the state, has not projected a chief ministerial candidate. It is up against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, whose Trinamool Congress increased its vote share from 45.6 percent in 2016 to 48.5 percent in 2021.
As has increasingly become the pattern in post-revision polling, the turnout in Bengal appears robust. Yet headline numbers may not tell the full story. The voting rights of around 27 lakh people remain under adjudication before appellate tribunals constituted on the Supreme Court’s direction. Come May 4, that unresolved question could prove to be a significant X factor in Bengal. One doesn’t know if a different X factor is in store for Tamil Nadu, too.
