The three recent Assembly by-elections produced mixed verdicts, but the Bankipur result stood above the rest. It jolted the BJP by ending its 30-year hold over one of its safest urban bastions. The bypoll was necessitated by Nitin Nabin vacating the seat he had won four times to become the BJP’s national president. This made the contest a prestige battle and the defeat even more telling. Elsewhere, the BJP also failed to wrest Datia from the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, a state it rules; Manjalpur in Gujarat was its lone source of succour.
Prashant Kishor’s victory will not redraw Bihar’s political map, but it suggests that a growing section of voters is in no mood to accept being taken for granted. The message is not for the BJP alone, but for the RJD as well. Perhaps the most acute point here is the role being played by Gen Z. Even before the recent protests, Tamil Nadu’s youth had rallied behind C Joseph Vijay and the TVK in such a way that they carried their elders with them. Bankipur suggests this youth impatience with unresponsive governance is beginning to find political expression elsewhere, too.
Kishor’s appeal finds a fortuitous sync with this mood. In this largely urban constituency, he could stick to his forte—education, healthcare, jobs and aspirations. Though he never raised caste, as a Brahmin face he could easily meld into an electorate made up largely of government retirees and the like. At the same time, speaking of universal issues like out-migration, he could speak across communities. The political arithmetic also worked in Kishor’s favour. A section of traditional BJP supporters from the elite castes appears uncomfortable with Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary’s brusque style and non-saffron roots, helping bolster the drift towards Kishor. Some Muslim-Yadav voters, seeing little prospect of an RJD victory, also shifted tactically to Kishor, helping him stitch together an unlikely coalition.
Bihar and Madhya Pradesh inhabit different political realities, but both results underline a few common themes. In particular, how difficult it is for unknown faces to replace long-serving CMs. Bankipur raises fresh questions about whether Choudhary has it in him to fill Nitish Kumar’s big shoes. Datia suggests Mohan Yadav, too, is being measured against Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s nearly 17-year-long legacy. The question is now harder for the party’s national leadership to ignore.
