Does Odisha need to rethink its population policy? The latest data would support the argument. According to the sixth round of the National Family Health Survey, the state’s total fertility rate has dropped from 1.8 in the previous assessment to 1.5—well below the national rate of 2. But that is only one of the factors calling for a debate on demography. An EY report revealed that the state’s median age zoomed from 26 in 2011 to 30 in 2021, and could reach 36 by 2036, the year Odisha turns 100. The above-60 population, which was 13.4 percent in NFHS-5, rose to 15.6 percent in the latest survey.
The contrary has happened for the below-15 age group, which has shrunk from 24.9 percent of the population to 22.3 percent. Experts say that though this demographic transition is silent, it’s dramatic in its implications as, by 2036, the state would feature an ageing society with a shrinking working population. The debate is not new in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where the median age has already crossed 30. Now Odisha is set to join their ranks. The southern states, which led the demographic transition through investment in better education, healthcare and family planning, are also worrying about the effect of shrinking fertility on their political representation at the national level, with the proposed Delimitation Bill on the horizon.
Odisha also needs to plan for the demographic shift. It’s now certain that the state’s demographic dividend will have narrowed by 2036, when it aims to become Viksit Odisha, a $500-billion economy. Hence, it’s essential to recognise that the demographic change is not just a social sector issue. A shrinking workforce will demand greater investments in education, skilling, women’s work and geriatric care.
The state’s policy rethink can begin by abandoning outdated ideas such as the two-child norm for panchayat election candidates, which were framed when population explosion was dominating the thinking. Yet offering incentives for a baby boom, as has been proposed in some other states, cannot be the answer. Countries with low fertility rates, like Japan and South Korea, have found it difficult to reverse the trend despite incentives. But it’s clear that the planning must start in Odisha now.
