The brief spectacle of President Donald Trump proposing a 20 percent toll on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz before withdrawing the idea should not be dismissed as another impulsive episode. It may instead be remembered as the moment when the world crossed an invisible line—the normalisation of monetising strategic geography.
Despite previous threats, the global economy has rested on the assumption that international chokepoints remain open to all under the principle of freedom of navigation. Iran’s recent attempts to regulate Hormuz challenged that norm. Trump’s proposal, despite its reversal, inadvertently legitimised the very logic Washington had once condemned. Once great powers begin treating sea lanes as toll roads, every narrow maritime passage becomes a geopolitical weapon.
The danger extends far beyond the Persian Gulf. If Hormuz becomes a precedent, Bab el Mandeb could become the next bargaining chip. Iran’s Houthi allies have already threatened to close the Red Sea gateway, while attacks on shipping have demonstrated how vulnerable global commerce has become.
For India, this is not just an energy security problem. It is the emergence of a new geography tax on supply chains. India has responded prudently by diversifying LPG supplies, expanding domestic production and relying increasingly on alternative shipment hubs such as Fujairah in the UAE. Gulf producers, too, are investing in pipelines to bypass Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West Petroline and Iraq’s planned Red Sea routes promise future resilience. Yet, none of these are immediate solutions. Even by the end of this decade, millions of barrels of oil and virtually all of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas supplies will remain hostage to vulnerable sea lanes.
Tomorrow’s world may well be shaped by geopolitical tolls, higher freight insurance and military escorts. Geography will not merely influence commerce—it will set the price. This is the challenge India must prepare for. Strategic reserves and diversified suppliers are necessary measures, but not sufficient ones. India must invest in maritime power, champion freedom of navigation and seafarers’ safety through multilateral institutions—as it promises to do at the UN Security Council—and accelerate transition towards domestic energy resources.
The battle over Hormuz is not just about one waterway. It is about whether strategic chokepoints become easily-wielded instruments of coercion. If that happens, the price of energy will increasingly be determined by whoever controls the map.
