Unlike many countries, India rejoices when the skies darken around this time of the year. For the monsoon, which exclusively irrigates more than half of India’s farm lands, also promises relief from record-breaking temperatures. No wonder then that a mere three-day delay in the rain-bearing clouds’ arrival is cause for national consternation. But even as the India Meteorological Department revised its forecast for the date of monsoon’s landfall in Kerala, another set of revisions darkened a longer horizon. The possibility of this season’s below-normal rainfall hitting only 90 percent of the long-period average—down from 92 percent estimated on April 13, thus placing it closer to the ‘deficient’ range—upset some of the most consequential macroeconomic calculations. The last time India recorded a severely deficient monsoon was in 2014-15, when it was accompanied by another phenomenon that’s building up this time too—strong El Niño conditions that are expected to intensify heatwaves, prolong dry spells and dent the kharif harvest, which accounts for more than half the annual foodgrain production.
If similar conditions a decade ago led to an agrarian distress, a rural demand slump and a regional water crisis, there is an added reason for worry this year. The Gulf war and Hormuz Strait blockade have driven up fertiliser prices by more than two-fifths before the kharif sowing season, forcing the government to expand its subsidy burden to protect farmers and food prices—what was budgeted for 2026-27 at ₹1.71 lakh crore is now expected to balloon to ₹2.75-3 lakh crore. With urea supplies hit, the Indian Council for Agricultural Research recommended using ammonium sulphate, an inorganic fertiliser whose short-term benefits should be balanced against its long-term impact on soil acidity. Experience also shows that it’s well nigh impossible to push farmers into changing their farming practices in short order.
Like so many other gaps in India’s strategic planning, the Gulf war has exposed the delicate calculations that keep the country’s food security in the safe zone. A parliamentary panel’s report last December pointed out that India produces a quarter less than the urea it consumes—a shortfall external shocks can exacerbate. Ultimately, we need to treat farm inputs as strategic industries. The reopening of district Agromet centres within a year of their closure taught us that we need to constantly share localised weather information with farmers—even if they are not precisely accurate.
