A strategic bilateral agreement on critical minerals and supply chains came at the business end of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s four-day visit to India amid an air of positivity. More “real, concrete achievables” were revealed at the Quad meeting of foreign ministers of India, the US, Japan and Australia in Delhi, which included the group’s Critical Minerals Initiative. The decisions included an Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Corporation, designed to leverage each member country’s surveillance capabilities to enhance information sharing, a joint port infrastructure project to address insufficient port capacity in the Pacific Islands, and measures to safeguard regional energy security. The initiatives infused new life into the grouping that was adrift ever since US President Donald Trump returned to power last year. But it remains to be seen how they would square off with Trump’s softening of posture against China with a G2 framework.
The underlying message of Rubio’s visit was continuity and momentum in the strategic partnership with India despite some strain in trade negotiations. While India flagged adverse American visa policies and concerns over dwindling fuel, fertilisers and foreign exchange reserves because of the US-Iran conflict, Rubio did some heavy lifting, defending Trump’s aggressive global trade recalibration with the assertion that it was not directed specifically at India. A similar line of defence came on restricting legitimate human mobility, including the latest fiat to green card aspirants to file their applications from home countries. Trump’s surprise live video appearance at an event in Delhi on Saturday—calling himself Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s big fan and adding, “India can count on me 100 percent”—injected a measure of drama. He also sent a personal invite to Modi through Rubio to visit the White House at an early date. But that can happen only after an equitable trade agreement is clinched.
On the West Asia front, fresh hopes germinated for a resolution of the US-Iran conflict, but both sides tamped down expectations. The American military later hit Iranian missile sites and boats, drawing robust retaliation. Trump also threw a curve ball at the Gulf nations and Pakistan, tying their normalisation of ties with Israel to the Iran peace deal, injecting further uncertainty. Much like Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, Trump entered a conflict he can neither win nor easily exit. Global economies can seethe, but do little else.
