CHENNAI: The poll season brings with it numerous changes, promises, hopes, and for some it is the time to apply their knowledge to understand and predict the results — psephologists are most-sought after by political parties and media to get a better understanding of which way the electorate will swing and why.
Psephology became a happening career when economist Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy of NDTV accurately predicted the outcome of the 1984 Lok Sabha elections.
There is no middle path in psephology, you either get it right or wrong. “There are major risks involved in poll predictions — if you fail, your credibility goes down. You need to do a lot of field work to be sure of your predictions,” says Premchand Palety, chief executive, Centre for Forecasting and Research, Delhi. Forecasting is only a small (but the most visible) part of the exercise. An important part of the job is the collection and compilation of data. “The media actually oversells poll predictions which leads to a mismatch in the expectation and delivery,” says Rajeeva L Karandikar, director, Chennai Mathematical Institute. “The media focuses on a tiny part of what a psephologist does. A psephologist can study the poll pattern and pinpoint why a certain section voted in a particular way, but the media is just interested in the result. There is a lot of scope, but no takers,” he laments. “There is a lot of opportunity for psephologists in the West. There are people who conduct surveys throughout the year to study the electorate.”
Thanks to all the hype surrounding opinion/exit polls, “a psephologist is now under a lot of pressure to predict accurately, and even expectations are high from him,” says Karandikar.
Skills required
There is no institute that teaches psephology. The main criteria to become a psephologist is interest in politics. “There is no place that will teach you this science. It is a combination of many subjects. Interest in politics, social sciences is basic and proficiency in market research, opinion polling are important,” says Palety, who went the MBA way to become a psephologist. “Somebody with a sound base in statistics and mathematics will also be able to predict election results and study the electorate,” says Karandikar.
Seasonal business
One can’t sustain on psephology alone. “This is just a part of my job. You can always use the same tools in other areas like industrial surveys, designing surveys, credit worthiness, quality assessment etc,” says Karandikar. Palety who runs a market research firm, adds, “Forecasting poll results contributes to only 10-15 per cent of our income. We do other surveys like customer satisfaction studies, distribution channel and logistics strategy, advertising strategy and product launch strategy to sustain ourselves. The Indian market has not matured enough for this science. The market is just growing now — it’s now worth Rs 50 crore.”
Media factor
Psephologists don’t merely spout eloquence on election results for media houses. Politicians are also seeking their services. “The business from TV channels is very less when compared to the one you get from politicians and parties. They want to understand their standing among the voters and also survey the electorate before distributing seats. Parties from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are coming to us with these requests. They also are acting on our suggestions,” says Palety.
Getting it right
To be successful as a psephologist, you will have to start by interning with someone experienced and get trained for several years. Initially, you’ll have to travel frequently, mainly in rural India. Since deadlines are important, you have to put in long hours. Job openings are restricted to research organisations, television channels and newspapers. You could also join political parties as they carry out surveys time and again. An MBA is the most suited degree for one who wishes to join a market research firm. A fresher at one such firm will earn a monthly salary of Rs 30,000.
— susmita@newindianexpress.com
