THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In the 2021 assembly polls, it was the emergence of a ‘Captain’ that propelled LDF to a resounding victory. What Covid-19 did to state politics remains unparalleled.
Food kits, community kitchens, route maps, quarantine facilities and welfare pensions defined the government’s compassionate yet firm approach when the state went to the polls.
The opposition, despite raising issues such as the distillery-brewery scam and the Sprinklr deal, failed to make a significant impact, largely because it could not present a viable alternative to Pinarayi’s strong leadership.
Five years down the line, however, Kerala’s political landscape has undergone a sea change. The factors shaping the state’s politics have shifted, strategies have evolved, and the narratives are markedly different.
Foremost, the emergence of a strong third player has upset the usual arithmetic. With the BJP gaining ground after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the 2025 local body elections, the state’s traditionally bipolar contest has, in several constituencies, turned triangular.
If welfare was the Left’s key plank last time, development now appears to dominate its campaign. The UDF, meanwhile, is banking on allegations of development stagnation, corruption and an autocratic leadership style.
The Congress has also been alleging a tacit CPM-BJP “deal” to ensure a third term for Pinarayi. The CPM counters by pointing to the old “Co-Le-B” equation, branding the Congress as “the BJP’s B team”.
The NDA, for its part, seeks to position itself as the primary challenger, taking swipes at the INDIA bloc, portraying the LDF and UDF as “not two, but one”. It has taken a three-pronged approach: promising change and development; targeting the rival fronts for forming pacts with organisations such as Jama’at-e-Islami and SDPI; and reaching out to Christian community.
Notably, there are striking similarities between the two elections — Sabarimala, gold, and minority consolidation. In different contexts, though.
If the Sabarimala women’s entry issue dominated discourse in 2021, it is the gold theft row that has taken centre stage this time. While the latter hurt the LDF in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Left managed to contain the damage by 2021. Now, both UDF and NDA are trying to capitalise on the gold theft controversy.
The Left has sought to shift the focus towards the Congress leadership, including Sonia Gandhi. BJP, meanwhile, is making a direct appeal to devotees, calling for “Devaswom reforms”.
If the gold theft issue is heating up the current campaign, it was allegations of gold smuggling through diplomatic channels that dominated the last election. Direct attacks on Pinarayi and his family, however, did not resonate strongly with voters then.
Minority consolidation — particularly among Muslim voters — remains a recurring theme in Kerala elections. And global developments often echo in the state’s political discourse, whether it is the Israel-Palestine conflict or broader West Asian crises.
In 2021, campaigns around the CAA contributed to such consolidation. Though both fronts sought minority support in a state where Muslim and Christian communities together account for roughly 45% of the population, the LDF ultimately benefited. Despite having the Muslim League as an ally, the UDF fell short.
This time, however, there are indications of a consolidation in favour of the Congress-led front. Allegations of anti-Muslim rhetoric by some Left leaders, claims of a covert CPM-BJP understanding, and debates over alleged SDPI links are all being used to influence voter sentiment.
2021 vs 2026
2021
LDF projected strong leadership under Pinarayi Vijayan amid pandemic uncertainties
UDF and NDA banked on Sabarimala women’s entry controversy, allegations of gold smuggling through diplomatic channel, nepotism under Pinarayi
LDF, UDF vied for minority votes over CAA
CPM goes for two-term norm; introduces young, fresh faces
LDF led by Pinarayi Vijayan, UDF by Ramesh Chennithala, and NDA by K Surendran
2026
LDF projects 10 years of devpt and welfare measures
BJP emerges as strong contender, reaches out to Christian voters
UDF, NDA highlights the Sabarimala gold theft case; LDF targets Sonia Gandhi
UDF hopeful of a Muslim vote consolidation in its favour
CPM terms Congress as “BJP’s B team”; Congress alleges “CPM-BJP deal”; BJP says LDF, UDF “one and the same”
LDF led by Pinarayi Vijayan, UDF led by VD Satheesan, and NDA led by Rajeev Chandrasekhar