KOZHIKODE: In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Vadakara, Congress leader Shafi Parambil broke campaign convention by reaching out directly to Gulf-based Malayali voters. His contest against LDF’s K K Shailaja was seen as too close to call, and that push to mobilise expatriates proved decisive.
Now, as Kerala heads into a high-stakes assembly election, that same voter base is now mired in uncertainty. Escalating tensions in West Asia have disrupted travel and livelihoods, raising doubts over whether expatriates will be able to return home to vote.
With over 2.2 lakh overseas voters — many concentrated in north Kerala — the NRI turnout could tilt outcomes in several constituencies. Kuwait Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC) vice-president Rahoof Thangal pointed to logistical as well as emotional strain.
“We are examining the feasibility of arranging chartered flights. At best, we may be able to organise two, which could bring back around 500 people. But this will depend entirely on how the situation unfolds,” he said.
“People are mentally drained. Unlike earlier elections, many are not showing the same interest in travelling back to vote.”
Expatriate voters remain a decisive factor in several constituencies in Malabar region, such as Kuttiady, Nadapuram, Kannur, Azhikode and Kuthuparamba. The UDF, in particular, has been banking on these votes to reclaim seats it lost by narrow margins.
This worry was evident as IUML leader Sayyid Munavvar Ali Shihab Thangal told TNIE that there was “no clarity” on how things would pan out. “There is hope that the situation will stabilise. But at present, there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. Kerala’s electoral rolls include over 2.2 lakh overseas voters. In tightly fought constituencies, their presence can swing outcomes.
Kuttiady, for instance, has over 16,000 expatriate voters. The last victory margin was just 333 votes. Nadapuram, with over 12,000 overseas voters, saw a margin of 3,385 votes.
Efforts were under way in constituencies such as Koyilandy and Taliparamba to mobilise these voters, but the West Asia crisis has disrupted many of these plans. The crisis has forced travellers onto indirect routes, often via Saudi Arabia, requiring additional visas and pushing costs beyond `1 lakh per person. Frequent flight cancellations have compounded the problem.
Dubai KMCC state vice-president Ismail Eramala said “efforts are continuing”. “Voter registration drives are ongoing, and we are closely watching the situation. We will move ahead with plans to bring voters home as conditions permit,” he said. K P Mohammed, district president of the Dubai KMCC Kozhikode Committee, stressed on the stakes.
“In a closely fought election, every vote matters. We are urging those who can travel to do so. For others, we have launched the ‘Hello Kerala’ campaign to ensure their families back home participate in the voting process,” he said.
Kunjahamed Koorachund, former Lokakerala Sabha member and Kerala Pravasi Sangam leader, said the “situation is very different and far more difficult” now. “My daughter, who works in Qatar, had planned to travel home on March 12, but her ticket was cancelled. Thousands like her across Gulf countries are facing similar difficulties,” he said.
In the past, Kunjahamed added, flights were chartered during polls. “This time, it is extremely challenging. Airlines are reluctant under the current conditions,” he said.
Attakoya Pallikandy, general secretary of the Indo-Arab Confederation and chairman of the NRI Global Foundation, pointed out that the dip in NRI votes will have an impact on electoral outcomes. “In constituencies like Kuttiady, Perambra, Thrissur, Guruvayur and Varkala, expatriate voters play a crucial role. In regions from Payyoli to Meppayur, nearly 40 per cent of voters are NRIs,” he said.
“The UDF will be the most affected, particularly in areas like Malappuram where expatriate influence is significant.”
Attakoya highlighted “widespread fear” among expatriates. “Many are worried whether they will be able to return to their workplaces if the conflict escalates,” he said.
Loka Kerala Sabha member Sreeprakash Purayath noted that there will be financial ramifications on the ground as well. ”Historically, NRIs have been among the financial sponsors of Kerala’s elections,” he said. “This time, the war crisis will hit fund flow.”
Sreeprakash, who is general secretary of Indian Association in Sharjah, concluded with a tip for political parties back home. “It is true that there won’t be many ‘vote flights’ from the Gulf to Kerala,” he said. “However, NRI influence over their families back home will remain a decisive factor in the final count.”