THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With just hours to go before voters head to the polls, the state’s political atmosphere is thick with anticipation. Parties are making a final push to win over fence-sitters, a crucial segment often seen as decisive in tight contests. While campaigns have reached their peak, the real contest now lies in influencing this roughly 10% of the voting population, whose last-minute decisions could swing results in closely fought constituencies.
The campaign officially went silent on Tuesday evening following the Election Commission’s directive, marked by the traditional ‘kottikalasham,’ the noisy rallies at junctions. Yet, the day was anything but quiet, with corruption allegations surfacing and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan countering the “Po Vijaya” narrative with “Dash Mone Revanth.” These dramatic exchanges underscore how the final hours are saturated with sensationalism aimed at swaying fence-sitters.
Election experts say such high-pitched messaging and sensationalism are strategically aimed at undecided voters, who typically make up their minds on the eve of polling. Studies by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) since 2006 suggest that nearly 70% of voters decide early in the campaign. The dramatic “last-minute” narratives are therefore designed to influence the remaining 10%, who can tilt the balance in a close race.
According to political commentator and former Kerala University professor Dr J Prabhash, these voters tend to adopt a wait-and-watch approach, carefully assessing the political climate before deciding. “The bombshells in the final days of the campaign are aimed at influencing the 10% who can turn the outcome in any direction in a tight competition,” he explains. However, he notes that if a clear trend emerges, they are unlikely to vote against it.
Psychiatrist and social commentator Dr C J John observes that parties deliberately deploy sensational campaigns and counter-campaigns in the final phase to capture the attention of swing voters. “These fence-sitters are not deeply engaged with politics; they are often influenced by the noise and drama surrounding it,” he said. Yet, he cautions that even if they decide, many may not vote at all. “A rain shower, high temperature, or long queue could be enough for them to find an excuse not to vote.”
Compared to general elections, assembly polls have traditionally seen voters prioritizing parties over individual candidates. However, this pattern is gradually shifting. CSDS data shows that while 63% of voters were party-focused and 25% candidate-focused earlier, the figures changed to 61% and 29%, respectively, in 2021. This indicates a growing segment of voters who are less rigid in their political loyalties. “This shift reflects a rise in relatively neutral voters—not politically disengaged, but not firmly aligned either,” Dr. John noted.
Youth participation remains another concern. Election Commission data shows that less than 40% of 18–19-year-olds registered for the 2024 elections, while the total number of voters under 30 remains below 50 lakh. Whether Gen Z voters fall into the 10% fence-sitter category or the 20–25% who abstain altogether remains unclear.
As polling day nears, all eyes are on this small but significant group of undecided voters. In constituencies where margins are razor-thin, their choices—or even their decision to stay away—could shape the final outcome. Campaigns may be loud and rallies grand, but ultimately, it is the quiet, wavering voter who could decide who governs the state next.