THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The campaign officially fell silent on Tuesday evening with the customary kottikalasham finale. But the silence was only on paper. The political atmosphere remained anything but quiet.
Even as formal campaigning ended, the final hours were marked by a flurry of controversy and sharp exchanges. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s “Dash mone Revantha” remark created a buzz, while Wednesday morning saw allegations of cash-for-vote against Palakkad NDA candidate Sobha Surendran. Across the state, there were such ‘last-minute’ eruptions.
Such dramatic moments underline a familiar pattern: the closing phase of an election is often saturated with sensational narratives aimed squarely at fence-sitters. Television channels and social media also do their bits to amplify this ‘final frenzy’. Analysts note that these last-minute potshots and bombshells are crafted to influence undecided voters, a small but crucial segment that typically makes up its mind on the eve of polling.
Studies by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggest that nearly 70% of voters decide early in the campaign, while about 10% remain fence-sitters till the last moment. (The remaining 20% of the survey samples fell into categories where responses were not clear).
According to political commentator and former Kerala University professor J Prabhash, the fence-sitters tend to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. They are called ‘swing voters’.
“The final days of the campaign are aimed at influencing the 10% who can turn the outcome in any direction in a tight contest,” he explains. “However, if a clear trend emerges, they are unlikely to vote against it.”
Psychiatrist and social commentator Dr C J John echoes the view. “These fence-sitters are usually not deeply engaged with politics. They are often influenced by the noise and drama surrounding it,” he adds.
Traditionally, voters prioritised parties over individual candidates in assembly polls. However, this pattern is gradually shifting. CSDS data shows that while 63% of voters were party-focused and 25% candidate-focused earlier, the figures changed to 61% and 29%, respectively, in 2021.
This points to a growing segment of voters who are less rigid in their political loyalties. “This shift reflects a rise in relatively neutral voters — not politically disengaged, but not firmly aligned either,” Dr John notes.
Youth participation remains another concern. Whether Gen Z voters fall into the 10% fence-sitter category or the 20–25% who abstain altogether remains unclear. Anyway, in constituencies where margins are razor-thin, the swing voters’ choices — or even their decision to stay away — could shape the final outcome.
Drop in voter count
Total voters in the 18-19 age category decreased by 1.52 lakh in 10 years and by 0.52 lakh in 5 years
In the 20-29 category, there is a decrease of 4.69 lakh voters in 10 years and 2.2 lakh voters in 5 years
Election Commission data shows that fewer than 40% of 18–19-year-olds registered for the 2024 general elections, while the total voters under 30 remain below 50 lakh