It is widely believed that this election is unlike anything the state has seen in the recent decades due to the entry of actor Vijay’s entry into politics and the possibility that TVK could secure a significant vote share that no other new party has secured since the entry of AIADMK.
As the tables show, the 2011 election was lopsided in favour of the AIADMK-led alliance. Though MDMK and BJP were present respectively as the third force, they did not influence the elections.
However, the 2006 and 2016 elections were clear examples of how a third force could influence the outcome in closely-contested elections. Actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK entered electoral politics in the 2006 elections. It secured 8.4% vote share and only Vijayakanth managed to win out of all the 234 seats the party contested.
In about 108 seats, DMDK’s votes resulted in the victory of DMK-led alliance’s candidates in 72 seats while the AIADMK-led alliance’s candidate won in 32.
Similarly, in 2016, when the left parties, VCK and DMDK formed the People’s Welfare Front, the votes secured by the candidates of the alliance were higher than the victory margins in about 106 constituencies, of which 62 were won by AIADMK. The results on May 4 will tell the extent of TVK’s influence and who ends up benefitting.
