KOLKATA: A cursory glance at the pre-poll status of the Baharampur assembly constituency in the Bangladesh-bordering Murshidabad district of West Bengal could suggest that the segment is bracing for a nail-biting triangular face-off between BJP's incumbent MLA Subrata Maitra, TMC's civic body chief Naru Gopal Mukherjee and former Pradesh Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.
But scratch the surface, and the story of Baharampur's electoral prospect that emerges seemingly revolves around two ground realities: polarisation of voters along religious lines and the return of Chowdury to the domain of the state's legislative politics after a gap of three decades.
Chowdhury, a former five-time Lok Sabha MP who was vanquished by TMC's cricketer-turned-politician Yusuf Pathan in an electoral upset in the 2024 parliamentary polls, is back to using his own words, "fill the void" and reclaim this erstwhile Congress bastion where the BJP made remarkable political inroads in the 2021 state elections.
Maitra, aka Kanchan, humbled Trinamool's Naru Gopal Mukherjee – whose candidature Mamata Banerjee has chosen to repeat – by a margin of almost 27,000 votes five years ago and pushed Congress's Manoj Chakraborty, a three-time previous MLA, to a distant third position to become the first saffron legislator of Baharampur in Independent India.
Baharampur holds a significant place in India's history. Established in 1757 by the East India Company following the Battle of Plassey, the town served as the first centre for the company in India. Over the years, Baharampur evolved into a vital hub for production, attracting not only the British but also the Dutch and the French.
Currently, the seat comprises the urban pocket of Baharampur municipality and five gram panchayat areas, two of which are Muslim-dominated.
The incumbent BJP MLA prefers door-to-door voter outreach over public meetings, stating he targets 500 households daily during campaigns.
"The social welfare schemes of PM Narendra Modi are designed for Hindu and Muslim voters alike. Pitted against this is the menace of infiltration from neighbouring Bangladesh, which is provoking law and order disturbance and eating into our food supply and job opportunities. Add to that TMC's corruption and muscle flexing, and you know which way people will lean," Maitra said.
Attributing the anti-NRC-CAA wave in the state, fueled further by the impact of central forces firing on Sitalkuchi villagers in Cooch Behar, as reasons behind Congress' dismal performance in Baharampur in 2021, Chowdhury told PTI that he believes Mamata Banerjee was able to capitalise on those factors to swing votes in her favour, especially in Muslim-majority areas, lending BJP its winning edge.
That reality doesn't exist now, the seasoned Congress leader added, exalting confidence about his victory this time.
Chowdhury, who said he faced an "uncertain political future" following his 2024 defeat, where his vote share dipped by nearly 14 per cent compared to 2019, has clearly come a long way in quick time in terms of exploring the possibility of cementing his foothold in a place he calls home.
"People here have always trusted me. In the last Lok Sabha elections, I failed to get the requisite votes on account of acute communal polarisation. After my defeat, people here regretted making that choice. This time, I will get people's support," Chowdhury said.
Chairperson of Baharampur Municipality and TMC nominee Naru Gopal Mukherjee, however, refuses to acknowledge the three-corner contest, claiming Chowdhury is a "spent force".
"Adhir Chowdhury is no longer a factor in Baharampur to reckon with. If that were the case, he would have won the parliamentary polls last year. He is contesting merely for his political survival. The contest here is between us and the BJP," he maintained.
Mukherjee's nearly 12.5 per cent spike in vote share in 2021 wasn't nearly enough to get past Maitra, who trumped him by securing over 45 per cent vote share, an incredible jump of over 35 per cent compared to the party's performance in 2016.
Maitra, though, says he isn't ready to ignore Chowdhury's hat in the ring, but alleges that the Congress leader stands exposed of his leaning towards one community and ignoring the other.
"Chowdhury recites Kalmas in Islamic gatherings and disrespects the Gita. The demographic change in Murshidabad has pushed Hindus against the wall. History will be rewritten in Baharmpur like it was written in 2021," Maitra told PTI.
Interestingly, observers feel that developments along religious lines outside the boundaries of the constituency in recent times are likely to affect voters' choices more than the ones within it, a trend that started five years ago.
Multiple instances of communal tension in adjacent areas in this district, where two out of every three citizens are Muslims and the hype over under-construction 'Babri Masjid' in neighbourhood Beldanga by TMC defector Humayun Kabir seems to be at the forefront of electors' consideration in Baharampur where, in sharp contrast to the demography of Murshidabad, about 70 per cent of voters are Hindus.
"Security is Baharampur's main concern. Communal polarisation is sharp since the urban pocket here has offered shelter to persecuted Hindus from elsewhere in the district. That's why all three prominent parties have fielded Hindu candidates, and the fight between them is evenly poised at the moment. The one who best convinces voters about providing them security is likely to cross the finish line," said a journalist in the ground, requesting anonymity.
Observers clued in to the local developments feel Chowdhury's political charisma has injected fresh excitement to what would otherwise have been a bipolar contest.
"The aura of Adhir Chowdhury still casts its desired impact among Baharampur voters, especially those above 40 years of age. The Congress leader is likely to draw support from both Hindu and Muslim voters and eat into the support base of both the TMC and the BJP. This will be an interesting fight. There are no clear winners now," Samaresh Mondal, a retired college principal from Baharampur, said.
