New research from the University of Oxford has identified 14 cities in India among the world's top 50 facing significant heat risk, with Nagpur and Madurai ranking in the top 10.
Al Basrah, Iraq, is noted as the city at the highest risk globally.
India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana are home to the largest number of cities with high-risk scores.
Over 95% of the most at-risk cities are located in South and Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The Indian cities included in the top 50 list are Nagpur, Madurai, Bhopal, Kanpur, Pune, Patna, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Kolkata, Jaipur, Lucknow, and Chennai.
Jaipur, known as a major tourist destination, is particularly vulnerable to heat. Other major tourist and international business hubs at risk include Cairo (Egypt), Bangkok (Thailand), and Hanoi (Vietnam).
The study analysed 205 global cities to assess where people are most at risk from rising global temperatures and related heat hazards.
Published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Societies, the research examined key indicators of risk, focusing on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity.
In many significant cities, especially across Asia and Africa, extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited coping capacity. This combination can greatly increase heat risk and, in some cases, lead to life-threatening consequences.
The study ranks 205 cities with populations exceeding 1 million and establishes a core set of risk indicators to allow for consistent comparisons across cities, rather than providing a comprehensive account of all factors that influence urban heat risk.
Factors considered include demographic and socioeconomic conditions that heighten susceptibility to heat-related illness and mortality, such as age and financial resources, as well as access to cooling infrastructure like air conditioning and ecological buffers such as tree cover.
“It isn’t just exposure to high temperatures that matters for risk,” explains lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam from the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.
“Our study emphasizes the need for multi-faceted global heat risk assessments that reveal the various pathways through which urban heat risk develops." Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the University of Oxford and co-supervisor of Nethmi’s research, stated, “Our study indicates that heat risk planning must explicitly address not only exposure to high temperatures but also vulnerability and coping capacity.
The demand for air conditioning is rising worldwide, but many people cannot afford it. Over-reliance on this energy-intensive form of cooling risks further global warming, creating a vicious cycle.
To effectively scale adaptation and ensure thermal comfort for all, we must employ a nuanced approach to keep people safe, starting with passive cooling and low-energy technologies such as fans and coolers.”
